\u3000\u3000 Shandong Nanshan Aluminium Co.Ltd(600219) (600219)
Event: the company issued a performance forecast on the evening of January 12. It is expected to realize a net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 3.08-3.52 billion in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 50.32% - 71.55%, and a year-on-year increase of 53.06% - 75.40% after deduction.
Comments:
The product price is rising, superimposed with the large volume of high-end products: Based on the median value of the forecast, the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021q4 is about 780 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 22% and a month on month decrease of 23%. The month on month decline of performance is mainly due to the decline of Q4 aluminum price and the rise of power cost. The annual performance growth was due to the rise in product prices and the increase in the proportion of high-end products. 1) Price: the average price of Changjiang nonferrous aluminum in 2021 was 16260 yuan / ton, with a year-on-year increase of 19.3%. The price of the company's aluminum products and the processing fee of some products increased; 2) Volume: the automobile board benefited from the rapid growth of new energy vehicles, achieved prosperous production and sales, and the annual sales exceeded 110000 tons; Indonesia's phase I 1 million ton alumina project was put into trial production in May 2021 and reached production in September, contributing to some incremental performance.
The production capacity of automobile plates is expected to double by the end of 2023, and the leading position is stable: the company is the first supplier of mass production of automobile plates in China, and the annual production capacity of automobile plates will be 200000 tons in 2021q1; In July 2021, the company started a new 200000 ton automobile lightweight aluminum plate and strip expansion project, with a construction period of 18-30 months. Considering the construction time, the project is expected to be put into operation before the end of 2023, when the automobile plate capacity will double to 400000 tons.
The new battery foil production capacity has been put into operation, and the production line transformation and phase II alumina construction in Indonesia have been carried out smoothly: the company's new 21000 ton high-performance power battery foil production line has been put into trial production in October 2021; The company's phase II 1 million ton alumina project in Indonesia is under construction as planned; The technical transformation of aluminum alloy production line for aerospace and aviation and the transformation of automobile lightweight aluminum plate and strip production line are in progress; The gradual implementation of the above projects will further thicken the company's performance.
279 million yuan of shares have been repurchased: the company previously launched a repurchase plan of 800-16 million yuan, and the repurchased shares will be used to reduce the registered capital. As of January 7, 2022, the company has repurchased 59.46 million shares, accounting for 0.5% of the total share capital of the company. The highest repurchase price is 4.84 yuan / share, the lowest price is 4.47 yuan / share, and the transaction amount is 279 million yuan.
Profit forecast, valuation and rating: we are optimistic about the gradual expansion of the company's follow-up high-end products. Assuming that the price of aluminum in 2021 / 2022 / 2023 is 16000 / 19000 / 19000 yuan / ton (the price of nonferrous aluminum in the Yangtze River is 21670 yuan / ton on January 12, 2022), and considering the release of automobile plate sales, the company's performance forecast is increased. The net profit attributable to parent company in 2021 / 2022 / 2023 is 33.0/40.2/4.82 billion yuan respectively (up amplitude adjustment of 6% / 5% / 7%), and the PE valuation corresponding to the current stock price is 18 / 15 / 12x respectively, Maintain the "overweight" rating.
Risk tip: the production capacity release of projects such as automobile plate and recycled aluminum is less than expected; Risk of sharp fluctuation of aluminum price and alumina price.
