Nonferrous Metals underperformed the market this week, down 8.08%. Over the same period, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 3.87% to close at 308692; The Shenzhen Component Index fell 5.12% to close at 110517; The CSI 300 rose 4.19% to close at 401325.
Base metal
The base metal futures market rose across the board this week. Futures market: LME nickel rose 0.68% over the same period last week; LME copper, aluminum, zinc, tin and lead fell by 2.25%, 0.38%, 1.38%, 2.33% and 2.14% compared with the same period last week. China’s spot market: copper, aluminum, zinc, lead and nickel increased by 0.05%, 0.32%, 0.44%, 1.85% and 4.00%; Tin fell by 0.57%. Copper: copper prices fluctuated this week. The supply disturbance at the mine end continued. During the week, several copper mines in Peru suspended copper production due to protests. At the same time, Chile’s constitutional amendment may have an impact on the production of copper raw materials. In the Chinese market, the pressure of logistics and transportation has been alleviated due to the improvement of the epidemic, and the demand for replenishment in the downstream is relatively strong. As of Friday, SHFE copper inventory was about 69900 tons, down 21.23% from the same period last week. Aluminum: aluminum prices fluctuated at a high level this week. European and American sanctions against Russia continue to increase, driving the further rise of energy costs, and the expectation of tight overseas supply remains unchanged. In the Chinese market, the production of electrolytic aluminum in Southwest China is still steadily increasing, and the production capacity supply has increased. Under the control of the epidemic, the logistics is not smooth, and the operating rate of downstream processing enterprises is low. It is expected that the terminal consumption will gradually recover after the epidemic is alleviated, which will usher in the growth of downstream replenishment demand. In the follow-up, we still need to pay attention to the marginal change of aluminum inventory. As of Friday, SHFE aluminum inventory was 296000 tons, down 1.28% from the same period last week. It is suggested to pay attention to: Zijin Mining Group Company Limited(601899) , China Molybdenum Co.Ltd(603993) , Henan Shenhuo Coal&Power Co.Ltd(000933) , Henan Mingtai Al.Industrial Co.Ltd(601677) , Yunnan Chihong Zinc & Germanium Co.Ltd(600497) .
New energy metals
The price of new energy metals remained stable this week. Cobalt: this week’s Cobalt price performance is weak. As of Friday, the spot cobalt price of the Yangtze River was 560000 yuan / ton, up 0.18% from last week. The prices of cobalt sulfate and cobalt trioxide were 432500 yuan / ton and 417500 yuan / ton respectively, down 5.93% and 3.47% from last week. During the week, the downstream demand continued to be weak, and the market transactions were mainly just needed procurement. In addition, the arrival of cobalt intermediate products in Hong Kong was superimposed on the low-price selling of upstream cobalt salt manufacturers, and the overall price of cobalt salt fell. Lithium: lithium salt prices remained high this week. As of Friday, the price of lithium carbonate was 452500 yuan / ton, down 1.63% from last week; The price of lithium hydroxide was 498400 yuan / ton, up 3.04% from last week. In terms of supply, the salt lake has a steady volume, but the short-term supply increment is limited; In terms of demand, recently disturbed by the Chinese epidemic, the market demand is weak, but the terminal new energy market is still developing rapidly. With the resumption of work and production of manufacturers in Shanghai, it is expected that the demand will pick up, and the lithium price is expected to remain high after the epidemic improves. It is suggested to focus on Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) , Nanjing Hanrui Cobalt Co.Ltd(300618) , targets of cobalt industry integration layout; Leading enterprises with high self-sufficiency rate of lithium resources Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) , Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) ; Related subjects of lithium in Salt Lake: Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co.Ltd(000792) , Tibet Summit Resources Co.Ltd(600338) , Tibet Mineral Development Co.Ltd(000762) , Sinomine Resource Group Co.Ltd(002738) ; Related objects of lepidolite: Yongxing Special Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002756) , Jiangxi Special Electric Motor Co.Ltd(002176) ; Related subject matter of spodumene: Sichuan New Energy Power Company Limited(000155) .
Precious metals
The high price of precious metals fell this week. Gold: as of Friday, Comex gold price was $1932.5/oz, down 2.26% from last week; Spot gold in London was $1941.6 per ounce, down 1.11% from last week. Silver: Comex silver price was US $24.19/oz, down 6.44% from last week; The spot silver price in London was US $24.35/ounce, down 5.11%. This week, the Fed’s interest rate hike warmed up, the strong rise of the US dollar index and US bond yields exceeded inflation expectations, consolidating market expectations that the US central bank will actively raise interest rates to fight inflation, and the price of gold is under pressure. At present, no substantive progress has been made in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. In the follow-up, we still need to pay attention to whether the Fed can effectively curb high inflation. In the short and medium term, high global inflation combined with pending geopolitics, and gold prices still have the power to act. It is suggested to pay attention to: Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining Co.Ltd(600988) , Shandong Gold Mining Co.Ltd(600547) , Yintai Gold Co.Ltd(000975) .
Risk tips
The demand is less than expected; The geopolitical war between Russia and Ukraine continued to ferment; The risk of Fed policy changes; The epidemic in Shanghai is out of control.
