Main points:
Special topic 1 of this week: Comments on social zero & real estate data in March
In March, the total retail sales of social consumer goods was 3423.3 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.5% year-on-year. In March, the retail sales of household appliances and audio-visual equipment were 75.22 billion yuan, a decrease of 4.3% year-on-year, a decrease of 17.0 PCT compared with February. The growth rate slowed significantly. In addition to the macro-control of real estate policies, the logistics chain caused by the epidemic also had a great impact on the Wuxi Online Offline Communication Information Technology Co.Ltd(300959) retail sales of household appliances; From January to March, the cumulative retail sales of household appliances and audio-visual equipment reached 206.71 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.85%, a decrease of 6.85 PCT compared with that from January to November.
In March, the real estate data came out, and the national residential sales / completion / new construction / investment completion were – 15.3% / – 23.2% / – 25.1% / – 2.4% year-on-year respectively. The real estate was under obvious short-term pressure due to the dual impact of policies and epidemic situation.
Special topic 2 of this week: Comments on industrial online air conditioning data in March
In March, the industrial online air conditioning data was released. In March, the domestic / export sales of air conditioners were + 3.2% / + 6.6% year-on-year respectively. The growth rate of domestic sales remained stable, and the growth rate of exports slowed down month on month. In terms of domestic sales, Midea / Gree / Haier’s growth rate in March was 20.9% / – 10.5% / 0.7% respectively. Midea sold 2.6 million units domestically in March, with a year-on-year increase of 20.9%, and the growth rate increased by 17.2pct month on month. From January to March, Midea sold 6.2 million units domestically, with a year-on-year increase of 7.8%; Gree sold 2.55 million units domestically in March, a year-on-year decrease of 10.5%, and the growth rate decreased by 2.2pct month on month. From January to March, Gree sold 5.5 million units domestically, a year-on-year decrease of 12%; Haier sold 1.36 million units domestically in March, with a year-on-year increase of 0.7%, and the growth rate decreased by 12.5pct month on month. From January to March, Haier sold 2.42 million units domestically, with a year-on-year increase of 2.5%. In terms of exports, Midea / Gree / Haier were 20.0% / – 2.0% / 14.0% year-on-year in March. Midea exported 3 million units in March, with a year-on-year increase of 20.0%, and the growth rate increased by 11.9 PCT month on month. From January to March, it exported 7.7 million units, with a year-on-year increase of 4.1%; Gree exported 1.45 million units in March, a year-on-year decrease of 2.0%, and the growth rate decreased by 34 PCT month on month. From January to March, Gree exported 3.64 million units, a year-on-year increase of 9.3%; Haier exported 570000 units in March, with a year-on-year increase of 14.0%, and the growth rate decreased by 7.6pct month on month. From January to March, Haier exported 1.67 million units, with a year-on-year increase of 33.6%.
Plate view
White electricity sector: the main support for white electricity repair comes from: 1) the pressure on the high base caused by the epidemic is gradually weakened, 2) the price rise trend of bulk commodities is alleviated, 3) the rise of shipping prices is stopped and stabilized, and 4) the trend of high-end consumption is gradually becoming. However, it is still plagued by long-term factors: 1) macroeconomic downturn; 2) Weakening of real estate pull, etc. In contrast, in the short term, the supporting factors have a direct and effective impact on the operating results of white power enterprises, and the short-term profitability of white power leaders can be repaired.
In the medium and long term, China’s white power market has gradually transformed into a stock competitive market dominated by renewal demand. Under this background, we are more optimistic about the deep barriers built by white power leaders in terms of brand, channel, R & D, management and other underlying basic capabilities. We believe that in the continuous innovation category of white power, we can rely on accumulated advantages to achieve the strength of the strong. At the same time, the white power leader with excellent product power, mature supply chain and rich experience in overseas operation has the opportunity to improve the penetration of overseas market, and the overseas market space is broad.
It is suggested that the kitchen and electricity integration sectors are weak, but the overall demand for kitchen and electricity integration sectors is relatively weak, but the performance of kitchen and electricity integration sectors is relatively weak. We believe that the penetration rate of integrated stoves at this stage is still low, while the existing stock housing market is large and has sufficient penetration space. At the same time, after the early consumer education of integrated stoves (especially, after the four leading enterprises took the lead in listing in 2020, Pinxuan strengthened to further improve the popularity of integrated stoves), the vigorous development in recent two years has promoted some leading enterprises to complete the accumulation from one to ten. With the construction of channels and the increasing improvement of product categories, and referring to the development track of traditional kitchen electric faucets, the leapfrog development of integrated stoves from 10 to 100 can be expected.
Cleaning appliances: under the industry characteristics of low stock and demand determined by supply, the frequent emergence of new products plays a great role in promoting the penetration of floor sweepers and floor washers Beijing Roborock Technology Co.Ltd(688169) launched the new self-cleaning floor sweeper U10 with mop and floor washer G10, Ecovacs Robotics Co.Ltd(603486) launched the new floor sweeper X1 with self-cleaning + self dust collection + self drying, and Yunjing’s second-generation new floor sweeper J2 with self-cleaning + self changing + self drying. These new products are significantly improved in product performance or industrial design compared with the past, in line with the current consumption upgrading trend, and are expected to further stimulate terminal sales.
At the same time, the rapid volume of floor washing machine has also attracted the rapid follow-up of Midea, lake, Jiuyang, Zhejiang Supor Co.Ltd(002032) , Xinbao and other enterprises. In the first half of 22, more enterprises will launch relevant products, and the high-profile atmosphere and certainty of floor washing machine and other emerging clean electrical appliances are strong.
Investment advice
It is suggested to pay attention to the white power leaders Midea Group Co.Ltd(000333) , Haier Smart Home Co.Ltd(600690) , Gree Electric Appliances Inc.Of Zhuhai(000651) , whose competition pattern is continuously optimized and whose profitability is expected to be marginally improved.
It is suggested to pay attention to the integrated stove leader Zhejiang Entive Smart Kitchen Appliance Co.Ltd(300911) , which comprehensively promotes the improvement of multi-dimensional organizational capabilities such as products, brands, channels and management, the traditional kitchen electric faucet Hangzhou Robam Appliances Co.Ltd(002508) , which arranges the new integrated stove products with the main brand, and the integrated stove leader Marssenger Kitchenware Co.Ltd(300894) , which continuously optimizes the product structure and steadily expands multiple channels.
It is suggested to pay attention to the sweeping Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) leader Ecovacs Robotics Co.Ltd(603486) with outstanding comprehensive advantages and building the second growth pole with the help of intelligent life appliances, as well as the sweeping Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) leader Beijing Roborock Technology Co.Ltd(688169) , which has deep technical barriers and rapid expansion of overseas channels.
Risk tips
Macroeconomic growth is less than expected, resulting in the decline of residents’ purchasing power; The severe regulation of real estate has a negative impact on the demand for downstream household appliances; The epidemic has repeatedly affected the resumption of production and work.
