Events
On April 25, the first batch of centralized land supply in Hangzhou in 2022 ended, with a total transaction amount of 82.675 billion yuan and an average premium rate of 6.41%. A total of 60 plots were transferred this time, including 59 transactions and 1 auction, of which 23 were closed to offline bidding and 27 were closed at the base price.
Main points
Adjust the bidding rules and determine the winner based on the principle of second highest quotation. The bidding process of centralized land supply in Hangzhou adopts the method of "five plots bidding at the same time, and five plots are in different regions". The rhythm of free bidding is accelerated, which tests the bidding decision-making ability of real estate enterprises. At the same time, new bidding rules are adopted. After the land price reaches the ceiling price, the bidder is determined by the offline "one-time quotation + lottery" method and the principle of "second highest quotation".
The supply of non main urban areas exceeds 80%, and the transaction heat has obvious regional differentiation. In this Hangzhou land auction, most of the 23 plots that touched the ceiling and turned into one-time bidding are located in the core area, while almost all plots in non core areas such as Lin'an District, Fuyang District, Yuhang District and Linping district are traded at the reserve price. At the same time, from the perspective of land regional supply, 11 lands are supplied in the four main urban areas of Shangcheng, Gongshu, Binjiang and West Lake, accounting for 15.6%, and the planned construction area of land supplied in non main urban areas such as Xiaoshan and Yuhang accounts for 84.4%.
Local real estate enterprises were active, and Binjiang gained 11 land. This round of local auction real estate enterprises have high enthusiasm for participation, including 11 cases of land acquisition by Binjiang consortium with a total price of 18.435 billion; Green city ranked second, with a total price of 14.632 billion yuan, picking seven land. Local platforms such as urban construction in the east of Hangzhou and Xiaoshan urban investment gained. Brand real estate enterprises, such as Vanke, won two lands in Yuhang District with RMB 5.822 billion, Longhu group won one land in Shangcheng district with RMB 1.01 billion, and Yuexiu real estate won three lands in Lin'an district with RMB 2.007 billion.
Investment advice
With the implementation of urban policies into the deep-water area, many places have issued new policies to stabilize market expectations, and the scope of regulation has gradually expanded to high-level cities such as Nanjing and Suzhou. The local auction in Hangzhou adjusted the bidding rules and determined the winner based on the principle of sub high quotation. Under the background of "limited house price and limited land price", the profit space of real estate enterprises is limited. Therefore, developers pay more attention to the de commercialization of project sales, so the competition of popular plots is becoming more and more intense.
In the short term, the credit environment still needs to be improved, the Matthew effect on capital is prominent, and enterprises with low financing cost and land acquisition advantage may benefit; In the medium and long term, after the in-depth adjustment of the industry, brand real estate enterprises with the advantages of financing and land acquisition will have obvious advantages in the future competition. Related targets: (1) leading real estate enterprises with low financing cost and sustainable land acquisition in first and second tier cities, such as Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) ( Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) . SH), Greentown China (3900. HK), Longhu group (0960. HK), Hangzhou Binjiang Real Estate Group Co.Ltd(002244) ( Hangzhou Binjiang Real Estate Group Co.Ltd(002244) . SZ), Huafa Industrial Co.Ltd.Zhuhai(600325) ( Huafa Industrial Co.Ltd.Zhuhai(600325) . SH), Cinda Real Estate Co.Ltd(600657) ( Cinda Real Estate Co.Ltd(600657) . SH), etc; (2) The construction of indemnificatory rental housing has gradually opened the demand for agent construction, and deeply cultivated the green city management holding (9979. HK) built by the government for many years.
Risk tips
Real estate policy regulation exceeded expectations; The sales of commercial houses were lower than expected.
