Event: on April 26, 2002, questmobile, a third-party mobile Internet data platform, released monitoring data such as 22q1 mobile Internet Mau, monthly per capita usage time, and the scale of Internet advertising market. 22m3 mobile Internet mau11 8.3 billion people (YoY + 1.8%), with a slight increase under a higher base.
Mobile Internet Ecology: the use depth of mobile Internet users has deepened, and the short video traffic has increased rapidly. According to questmobile data, 1) mobile Internet traffic increased year-on-year. 22m3 monthly average usage time is 162 hours (YoY + 12%), monthly average usage times is 2637 times (YoY + 4.4%), and mobile Internet traffic (calculated by multiplying monthly average usage time by MAU) is yoy + 14%. Under the repeated epidemic, the online degree of residents' activities has improved, the online content is richer and the service is more comprehensive, and the stickiness of Internet users is expected to continue to improve. 2) 22m3 short video realizes the double rise of Mau and user stickiness. The Mau of 22m3 short video industry reaches 925 million people (YoY + 4.5%), and the monthly average use time is 56.4 hours (YoY + 24%); The growth rate of Mau and duration is faster than that of the Internet industry. The expansion of immersive content is expected to make the traffic of short video industry continue to grow.
"Silver haired people" and sinking market are expected to become the main growth points of current Internet users. 1) Middle aged and elderly users may become an important growth source of Internet users. According to questmobile data, among 22m3 mobile Internet users, the proportion of users aged over 51 increased by 1.6pcts year-on-year, and the proportion of users aged 41-50 increased by 0.4pcts year-on-year. It is mainly due to the aging trend of Chinese residents and the popularity of app "big character mode" and other elderly friendly functions driven by the upgrading of app "suitable for aging" by the Ministry of industry and information technology. The proportion of middle-aged and elderly users in short video applications increased year-on-year, and the proportion of speed version was higher than that of the main station. According to Aurora data, the proportion of active users over 46 years of age in 22m3 Kwai, Kwai Extreme Edition, Tiktok and Tiktok Extreme Edition was 20.5%/26.6%/17.1%/28.1% respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 1.62/1.25/0.82/0.63pcts respectively. The short video platform is highly interactive and easy to operate, and is expected to continue to expand the middle-aged and elderly user groups. 2) High speed app and short video applications are expected to promote the sinking market and continue to improve Internet penetration. At present, the intercity distribution structure of users in the whole network has stabilized as a whole. In the future, targeted content investment and marketing should be carried out according to the user interest preference and user mind in the sinking market. With the features of simple function, traffic saving and cash rewards such as red envelopes, the fast version app is expected to continue to explore the source of users in the sinking market. According to questmobile, 22m3 users pay more attention to video, automobile and other fields; According to the aurora data, the monthly average dau proportion of 22q1 Kwai, Kwai, Tiktok, Tiktok and lower tier cities increased month on month. With the gradual deepening of the trend of video content, the sinking market is expected to become an important growth space for short video applications.
Internet advertising: the overall growth rate of the Internet advertising industry is expected to slow down in 22 years, and short video advertising is expected to outperform the industry. According to questmobile data, the scale of China's Internet advertising market in 22q1 is expected to be 142.92 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 3.9% and a decline in growth rate. We believe that the growth of Internet advertising industry will be under pressure in 22 years, and the growth rate of market scale will decline from about 20% in 21 years to single digits. Main considerations: 1) under the repeated 22h1 epidemic, the real economy has been greatly affected and the budget of advertisers has decreased. 2) Since 21q3, the regulation of specific industries has led to the reduction of advertising budget, which is expected to affect the first two quarters of 22 years. 3) Internet advertising grew rapidly in 21h1 and faced high base pressure in 22h1. 4) Regulators restrict the use of personal information recommended by the algorithm, and the accuracy of advertising is negatively affected. Short video advertising has strong interactive and transaction transformation attributes. We believe that when the overall economic environment is relatively shrinking, advertisers will be more inclined to short video platforms with high user stickiness and personalized recommendation ability, and the market share of short video advertising is expected to increase.
Investment suggestion: we believe that with the gradual expansion of online scenes and the continuous enrichment of content, the user stickiness of the Internet industry is expected to continue to improve and maintain the "buy" rating of the Internet media industry. We recommend the leading manufacturers that are in line with the trend of video content and whose traffic is expected to continue to grow. We recommend Tencent holdings and Kwai technology.
Risk tips: increased competition risk, market supervision risk, user growth slowdown risk, macroeconomic risk
