Key investment points:
Steel: the steel price was – 0.03% month on month. Real estate construction is affected by the epidemic. With the relaxation of real estate policy and monetary policy, the demand is expected to be repaired after the epidemic improves. The national development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of industry and information technology proposed to “ensure the year-on-year decline of national crude steel production in 2022”, and the supply side is expected to continue to be optimized. Under the situation of Russia and Ukraine, the high global coal price leads to pressure on gross profit. In the short term, the steel price may be strong under the support of cost, and in the long term, we need to pay attention to the growth special steel.
Copper: LME copper / Changjiang nonferrous copper price was – 0.45% / + 0.71% month on month. The overseas Fed is expected to increase interest rate hikes to suppress copper prices, and Chile’s copper production is less than expected to interfere with supply; The epidemic situation and demand affect China at the same time
Lose. In the short term, global inflation will still support copper prices. In the follow-up, we need to pay attention to the control progress of China’s epidemic. Aluminum: LME aluminum / Changjiang nonferrous aluminum price chain ratio + 0.20% / + 1.59%. The situation in Russia and Ukraine still restricts overseas supply; More than half of China’s supply side’s new capacity + resumption of production progress, but it is stored in the ceiling, and the inventory is at a low level. The short-term epidemic affects demand. It is expected that steady growth + vehicle lightweight after improvement will promote the recovery of demand. It is expected that the aluminum price will run at a high level throughout the year.
Lithium: the price of electric carbon / lithium hydroxide was – 4.64% / – 2.61% month on month. Mexico passed the lithium nationalization bill to exacerbate the uncertainty of overseas supply. The epidemic has led to the shutdown of some new energy vehicle enterprises in China, which has dragged down the demand. The seasonal increment at the salt lake end has disturbed the supply, and the game between the upper and lower reaches at high prices. However, as the epidemic is gradually controlled and the demand side improves, the price is expected to stabilize.
Rare earth: praseodymium and neodymium oxide / dysprosium oxide / terbium oxide price chain ratio + 2.09% / + 2.57% / + 8.27%. Some factories affected by the epidemic have resumed production. At the same time, the price has been corrected to a certain extent, the enthusiasm of procurement demand has been strengthened, and the increment of supply side is limited to support the price stabilization. In the follow-up, we still need to pay attention to the epidemic prevention and control process.
Gold: Comex / SHFE gold price was – 4.27% / – 0.88% month on month. U.S. debt upside down or contain hawkish policies, short-term high inflation is difficult to alleviate, supporting the high price of gold.
Investment advice
It is suggested to pay attention to Zhejiang Yongjin Metal Technology Co.Ltd(603995) ( Zhejiang Yongjin Metal Technology Co.Ltd(603995) ) and Yongxing Special Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002756) ( Yongxing Special Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002756) ). It is suggested to pay attention to Guangdong Jiayuan Technology Co.Ltd(688388) ( Guangdong Jiayuan Technology Co.Ltd(688388) ) and Henan Shenhuo Coal&Power Co.Ltd(000933) ( Henan Shenhuo Coal&Power Co.Ltd(000933) ) for industrial metals. It is suggested to pay attention to Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) ( Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) ), Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) ( Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) ), Youngy Co.Ltd(002192) ( Youngy Co.Ltd(002192) ). It is suggested to pay attention to China Northern Rare Earth (Group) High-Tech Co.Ltd(600111) ( China Northern Rare Earth (Group) High-Tech Co.Ltd(600111) ) and China Minmetals Rare Earth Co.Ltd(000831) ( China Minmetals Rare Earth Co.Ltd(000831) ). It is suggested to pay attention to Shandong Gold Mining Co.Ltd(600547) ( Shandong Gold Mining Co.Ltd(600547) ) for precious metals.
Risk tips
The risk of price fluctuation of raw materials, the risk that downstream demand is lower than expected, and the risk that covid-19 epidemic spread is higher than expected.
