\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 196 Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (Group) Co.Ltd(600196) )
Key investment points
Performance: innovation drives high income growth
202201: the company realized a revenue of 10.382 billion (yoy28.87%), a net profit attributable to the parent company of 463 million (yoy45.41%, mainly due to the decline in the share price of bntx shares and other financial assets compared with the end of 2021), and a net cash flow of 866 million (yoy17.49%) from operating activities excluding 801 million (yoy21.73%), indicating a strong operating quality.
The rapid growth of revenue is mainly due to the significant contribution of fubitai, hanquyou, Sukexin (adetramibe maleate tablets), heparin series preparations and other products. The vaccination of fubitai in Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan has been continuously promoted, and 24 million doses have been vaccinated by the end of March 2022. We believe that throughout the year, hanquyou, Su Kexin and car-t are still expected to continue to be in high volume. The newly approved listing of PD-1 slouli differentiated MSI-H indications is expected to bring flexibility to the company's continued strong growth in revenue.
Outlook: innovation and transformation have entered an accelerated period, and we are optimistic about continuous realization
Looking forward to 20222023, PD-1 srulizumab MSI-H has been approved for marketing and entered the high-volume period. Large indications sqnsclc is also expected to be approved for listing this year. The indications of es-sclc with significant clinical advantages have also been in the NDA stage, and trastuzumab, avatrapopa, car-t yikaida and bevacizumab are still in the accelerated dose period. With the continuous acceleration of innovation increment, we are optimistic about the growth of the company from 2022 to 2023.
Profit forecast and valuation
We expect the company's EPS to be 2.14, 2.47 and 2.83 yuan / share from 2022 to 2024. The closing price on April 26, 2022 corresponds to 21 times of PE in 2022 (18 times of PE in 2023), maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tips
Risk that the review progress is less than expected; Product sales are less than expected; Market competition risk; The clinical outcome is less than the expected risk; Policy risk.
