\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 312 Sichuan Development Lomon Co.Ltd(002312) )
In 2022, Q1 is expected to realize a net profit of 260300 million yuan after deducting non-profit, with a year-on-year increase of 121.59% – 155.68%. The company announced that the net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to reach 250290 million yuan in the first quarter of 2022, with a year-on-year increase of 124.90% – 160.88%; The net profit after non deduction was 260300 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 121.59% – 155.68%; The basic earnings per share is 0.14-0.17 yuan / share (0.08 yuan / share in the same period last year). Since 2022, the phosphorus chemical industry has continued the business cycle since 2021. The volume and price of the company’s main core products have increased simultaneously, and the company’s profitability has improved.
In 2021, the net profit deducted from non-profit was 673 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 103.10%. The company released its annual report for 2021. During the reporting period, the company achieved a revenue of 6.645 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 28.28%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.016 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 51.94%; Deduct 673 million yuan of non net profit, with a year-on-year increase of 103.10%; The basic earnings per share is 0.63 yuan (0.50 yuan in 2020). The performance growth is mainly due to the strong business cycle of the phosphorus chemical industry in 2021. The sales prices of the company’s main products such as industrial grade monoammonium phosphate, feed grade calcium hydrogen phosphate and fertilizer grade monoammonium phosphate have increased year-on-year, and have maintained a relatively high level for a long time. In 2021, the production and sales volume of industrial grade monoammonium phosphate of the company was the largest in the world and the export volume was the largest in China, exceeding 50% of China’s total export volume; The production and sales of feed grade dicalcium phosphate, fertilizer grade monoammonium phosphate and compound fertilizer rank among the top in China; The phosphogypsum comprehensive utilization project is gradually put into operation, and the output of gypsum building materials ranks in the forefront of the country.
Actively promote the acquisition of 100% equity of Tianrui mining, and further improve the guarantee ability of upstream phosphate rock resources. The company is acquiring Tianrui mining. After the acquisition, the company’s phosphate rock raw material resource reserve will increase significantly. After the completion of Tianrui mining, the phosphate rock production capacity will be increased by 2.5 million tons per year, most of which will meet the phosphate rock demand of Mianzhu base. At that time, the company will have an annual production capacity of 3.65 million tons of phosphate rock.
Lay out the field of new energy materials and open the second growth curve. The company plans to invest 12 billion yuan in Deyang ABA Ecological Economic Industrial Park to build Deyang Sichuan Development Lomon Co.Ltd(002312) lithium battery new energy material project, including 200000 tons of iron phosphate, lithium iron phosphate and its supporting projects. The project is listed as a key promotion project in Sichuan Province. At present, it has been officially started, and some project land and environmental assessment replies have been obtained. The safety assessment, job assessment and stability assessment have been filed, and the approval of energy assessment and construction permit are being promoted in an orderly manner. At the same time, the company is steadily promoting lithium new energy materials projects in Panzhihua, Hubei and other places.
Profit forecast and investment rating. We estimate that the net profit of the company from 2022 to 2024 will be 823 million yuan, 911 million yuan and 1.023 billion yuan respectively, and the EPS will be 0.47, 0.52 and 0.58 yuan respectively. With reference to the valuation of comparable companies in the same industry, and considering the deepening degree of integration and strong growth in the future, the company is given a certain valuation premium. Give the company 25 times PE for 22 years, corresponding to the target price of 11.67, and give the rating of “better than the market” for the first time.
Risk warning: the production progress of the project is less than expected, the product price fluctuates sharply, and the downstream demand is less than expected
