\u3000\u30 Beijing Jingyeda Technology Co.Ltd(003005) 58 Betta Pharmaceuticals Co.Ltd(300558) )
Events. The company announced the first quarterly report of 2022. In 2022, Q1 achieved an operating revenue of 585 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.47%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 84 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 43.36%; Deduct non net profit of 75 million yuan, down 46.89% year-on-year.
Viewpoint: the income side is affected by the price reduction of medical insurance negotiation, the apparent growth rate of parent net profit is affected by equity incentive expenses, and the sales of ektinib and ensatinib are still growing rapidly.
\u3000\u30001. On the income side, affected by the price reduction in medical insurance negotiation, the sales of ektinib and ensatinib are still growing rapidly. In the medical insurance negotiation last year, exetinib reduced its price by 38%, and included postoperative auxiliary indications. The price reduction factor affected the growth rate of the income side in the short term, but the sales volume of exetinib still increased rapidly. The new medical insurance of ensatinib also achieved ultra-high growth in Q1. The sales volume of ektinib Q1 increased by 19.56% year-on-year, and the sales volume of ensatinib increased by 110387% year-on-year.
\u3000\u30002. The apparent growth rate of parent net profit is affected by equity incentive expenses. The equity incentive plan affects the company's Q1 net profit of 61.22 million yuan. If the equity incentive fee is added back, the Q1 net profit attributable to the parent company will be 145 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.93%, matching with the income end.
\u3000\u30003. R & D is accelerated, and the progress of Q1 R & D depends on a lot. In January, the application for clinical trial of nsatinib for postoperative adjuvant treatment was accepted, and the notice of approval for clinical trial was obtained in April; In March, the first-line treatment indications of nsatinib were approved for listing. In January, the application for marketing license of CM082 combined with everolimus for second-line treatment indications for patients with advanced renal cell carcinoma (RCC) was accepted. In January, the clinical trial of bpi-371153 "intended for the treatment of patients with advanced or metastatic solid tumors or recurrent / refractory lymphoma" was approved. In January, the clinical trial of bpi-442096 "intended for advanced solid tumor" was approved.
\u3000\u30004. The company continues to promote clinical research, and a number of R & D achievements in 2022 are worth looking forward to. According to the research and development progress:
Nsatinib first-line overseas NDA (the company's first international new drug, first-line clinical data, best in class, is expected to significantly prolong the medication time, and the total sales peak outside China is expected to reach 3 billion yuan, providing performance increment for the company);
0316 the second-line has been reported for production, and the first-line treatment has entered phase II / III clinical treatment;
PD-1 and CTLA-4 China clinical promotion (PD-1 clinical acceptance, listing progress is expected to accelerate);
CM082 renal cell carcinoma has been reported to NDA, etc.
Subsequently, enrich frontier pipelines and promote clinical: the company is developing more than 40 new drug projects, bpi-361175 won the first clinical approval in the United States, and 11 candidate drugs / indications ind.
Profit forecast: the company is a scarce innovative drug target for a shares. Ektinib continues to contribute stable cash flow, and ensatinib is expected to increase rapidly. The subsequent R & D pipeline echelon has been gradually formed. The R & D team has overseas R & D experience + excellent R & D strength, and the sales team has strong strength. It is optimistic about the long-term development of the company and maintains the "buy" rating. We expect the company's operating revenue from 2022 to 2024 to be 2.930 billion yuan, 3.819 billion yuan and 5.548 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 30.4%, 30.4% and 45.3%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 507 million yuan, 676 million yuan and 1004 million yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 32.2%, 33.4% and 48.5%; The corresponding PE is 34 times, 26 times and 17 times respectively.
Risk warning: the product volume is lower than expected; The promotion of innovative drug research and development is lower than expected; Risk of failure in research and development of innovative drugs.
