\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 422 Sichuan Kelun Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002422) )
Sichuan Kelun Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002422) released the first quarter report of 2022. In 2022, Q1 company achieved a revenue of 4.482 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.97%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 291 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 66.08%; The non net profit attributable to the parent company was 264 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 70.52%; EPS0. 20 yuan.
The company announced the business forecast from January to June 2022. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company will be 665 million yuan to 764 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 35% - 55%. The net profit attributable to the parent company in Q2 ranges from 374 million yuan to 473 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 18% - 49%.
2022q1 exceeded expectations, the profit of CHUANNING increased, the new drug sector continued to increase, and the performance in 2022 is expected.
In the first quarter, the net profit attributable to the parent company achieved an ultra-high growth of 66.08% year-on-year. We expect the profit contributed by the infusion part to be about 300 million yuan, the new drug to be about 250300 million yuan, the API to be about 100 million yuan, and then deduct 417 million yuan of R & D as a whole. In 2020, the company was greatly affected by the epidemic, and the infusion fell more, with a restorative growth in 2021. The company predicts that the net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase by 35% - 55% in 2022h1, and the single quarter profit in Q2 is expected to increase month on month compared with Q1, confirming the good trend quarter by quarter. The lower limit of H1 performance is expected to be 665 million. We expect the profit of 1.3 billion for the whole year to be expected. At present, the market value of the company is 21 billion, and the corresponding pe16x is in a relatively undervalued position. The subsequent performance is expected to continue to pick up, mainly driven by:
The prices of main products of CHUANNING increased year-on-year, and the sales revenue and net profit increased year-on-year;
The company made every effort to expand the core business product market, continuously optimized the product structure, and the operating revenue and gross profit increased year-on-year;
The volume of generic drugs continued to increase, and the operating revenue and gross profit increased year-on-year.
The effect of innovation, R & D and reform of the company has been obvious, and the transformation results of imitation and innovation are now available. The company invested 417 million yuan in R & D in the first quarter, which remained stable year-on-year. After the R & D reform of the company in 2021, the R & D expenses are reasonably controlled and the R & D efficiency is continuously improved. We expect that the first innovative drug product A167 (PD-L1) from the end of this year to the beginning of next year is expected to be approved for listing, and the transformation achievements of imitation and innovation will be realized soon, which is expected to provide new impetus for the company's performance.
Profit forecast and valuation. The company has gradually recovered from the impact of the epidemic in 2021. The achievement of generic drugs further promotes the achievement of high-speed growth. The continuous follow-up of follow-up varieties will give the company continued driving force for revenue, and the pace of transformation of the company is more and more stable. According to the first quarter report and interim report, we raised the profit forecast. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be 1.31 billion yuan, 1.5 billion yuan and 1.74 billion yuan respectively, with the corresponding growth rates of 18.9%, 14.5% and 15.9% respectively, EPS of 0.92 yuan, 1.05 yuan and 1.22 yuan respectively, and PE of 16x, 14x and 12x respectively, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk warning: risk of industrial policy change; The risk that the CHUANNING project fails to meet the expectations; Risk of lagging behind in the progress of generic drug conformity evaluation; Risk of failure in new drug research and development;
