\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 519 Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) )
Event: the company released its first quarterly report. In the first quarter of 2022, the company realized an operating revenue of 32.3 billion yuan, an increase of 18.4% at the same time; The net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company was 17.24 billion yuan, an increase of about 23.58% at the same time. The operating tax increased by 13.57pct% in the same quarter and the gross profit rate decreased by 92.57pct in the same quarter; The sales expense rate was 1.60%, decreased by 0.42pct, and the management expense rate was 6.49%, increased by 0.11pct; The balance of contract liabilities was 8.322 billion yuan, down 4.396 billion yuan from the end of 2021; Cash receipts amounted to 31.49 billion yuan, an increase of 41.20%.
The direct sales channel has doubled, which is expected to promote the continuous upward trend of ton price. In the first quarter of 2022, Maotai liquor achieved a sales revenue of 28.86 billion yuan, an increase of 17.4%, and series liquor achieved a sales revenue of 3.43 billion yuan, an increase of 29.7%; The sales revenue from direct sales channels reached 10.89 billion yuan, an increase of 127.9% with direct sales accounting for 33% and an increase of 15pct. In the first quarter, Maotai liquor benefited from the doubling growth of direct sales channels and the significant increase in the proportion of direct sales compared with the same period of 21 years. It is expected that the ton price of Maotai liquor will continue to rise, and the series of liquor is expected to benefit from the launch of Maotai 1935 and achieve rapid growth;
Maotai 1935 filled the vacancy of products at the price of 1000 yuan and focused on the “slimming” of series liquor. In 2022, a new and precious Maotai (Maotai liquor) was launched, with an ex factory price of 4399 yuan. It is positioned between high-quality products and years. Maotai liquor forms a product matrix represented by years, treasures, high-quality products and zodiac from top to bottom; Maotai 1935 (Series liquor) has an ex factory price of 798 yuan and a suggested retail price of 1188 yuan, which complements the vacancy of Maotai products at the price of 1000 yuan. It is expected to form a large single product at the price of 1000 yuan in the medium and long term. In 2022, the company stopped production of 10 series of liquor products such as 500ml Maotai Prince liquor and 500ml Maotai welcome liquor. The market cost is inclined to 11 main products such as Maotai 1935, Han sauce (MAO), golden Prince and precious prince, and the series of liquor product matrix is more focused.
Maotai implemented the digital marketing law, and the marketing reform continued to advance. In February 2022, Ding Xiongjun, chairman of Maotai, proposed the “five in one marketing method”, which proposed the digital marketing method to build and improve the digital marketing platform. We believe that through the “I Maotai” e-commerce platform, we will gradually realize the online direct marketing of the whole product series of Maotai liquor + Series liquor, which is expected to accumulate digital assets in a long cycle, form Maotai’s own controllable customer data and other digital assets, strengthen the use of data, organically integrate customer data and information from all channels, realize internal information sharing and unified management, and help accurately identify high net worth core customers, Make full use of the data system to implement data supervision on social dealers and other channel providers. Since the launch of “I Maotai” e-commerce platform on March 31, the number of subscription per capita has been about 8 million, which has become an important C-end traffic entrance of Maotai, or help Maotai accelerate the cultivation cycle of new products in the future.
Investment suggestion: the company will carry out digital reform from 2022 and realize the accumulation of digital assets through e-commerce platform. The digital marketing method will help inject new momentum into Maotai marketing. The new policy of market-oriented reform of the company has been gradually implemented, and the performance in the first quarter of 2022 has accelerated compared with that in 2021. Based on the performance in the first quarter, the revenue of the company from 2022 to 2024 is expected to be 128.1/1489167.1 billion yuan respectively, and the net profit attributable to the parent is 62.3/734/82.7 billion yuan respectively. The corresponding P / E of the current stock price is 35 / 30 / 26x respectively, maintaining the “recommended” rating.
Risk tips: 1) there is a risk that the reform of the new deal will be blocked, affecting the supply and demand structure and the rhythm of product supply; 2) Limited risks of industrial policies such as capacity expansion and taxation; 3) The impact of the epidemic exceeded expectations.
