\u3000\u3 Guocheng Mining Co.Ltd(000688) 330 Shanghai Holystar Information Technology Co.Ltd(688330) )
Event overview: on April 26, the company released the first quarter report of 2022. In 22q1, the company realized an operating revenue of 294 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 47.57%; The net profit attributable to the parent was 113 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 61.32%, and the net profit not attributable to the parent was 99 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 67.94%; The basic earnings per share was 1.13 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 61.43%.
22q1 company’s profitability further improved. The gross profit margin of 22q1 company increased significantly by 6.92 PCTs to 52.76% month on month, and the proportion of revenue from high-value products increased. In terms of expense ratio, the sales expense ratio and management expense ratio of 22q1 company decreased significantly on a month on month basis. The sales expense ratio of 22q1 company decreased by 1.47 PCTs and 3.24 PCTs to 3.95% on a month on month basis, and the management expense ratio decreased by 2.17 PCTs and 2.18 PCTs to 4.08% on a month on month basis. The cost control effect was remarkable, and the R & D investment of 22q1 company continued to be high. The R & D expense ratio of 22q1 company remained at a high level of 5%, benefiting from the sharp decline in the expense ratio during the period, The net interest rate of 22q1 company increased significantly by 3.27pcs and 13.9pcs to 38.40% month on month, respectively.
22q1 company’s inventory continued to grow. The company uses the cost method to calculate the inventory. The inventory of 22q1 company reaches 479 million yuan, which is further increased compared with the end of 21. The amount of goods issued is large, and the adverse impact of the epidemic on logistics and production is small. The company mainly adopts the production mode of “production based on sales and appropriate inventory”. The production department will prepare an appropriate amount of inventory according to the product orders received by the sales department. The inventory amount of 22q1 company is large and further increased compared with the end of 21, releasing the positive signal of the company’s subsequent growth.
New market + new product two wheel drive, the company is expected to maintain steady growth in the future. 1) The intelligent column switch accelerates the expansion outside the province. During the “14th five year plan” period, the proportion of distribution network investment is expected to rise to about 60%, and the switch space on the intelligent column of distribution network is large. Based on the stable basic sector of Zhejiang Province, the company accelerates the expansion of the market outside the province. The company has more products put into operation in Jiangsu, Shaanxi, Fujian, Shanxi, Shandong, Henan and other provinces. In 2021, the proportion of regional revenue of the company except East China will increase to nearly 40%, and the business outside the province is expected to accelerate the contribution of performance increment in the future. 2) Intelligent ring network cabinet is expected to open the second growth curve of the company. The intelligent ring network cabinet is mainly used in the scene of underground cables. The underground cables have the characteristics of difficult maintenance and high requirements for operation stability. The corresponding demand space of the intelligent ring network cabinet is large. The company’s intelligent ring network cabinet business is expected to be industrialized in 2022, which has high technical homology with the company’s intelligent column switch, and has strong reusability of channel resources. After the industrialization of the company’s intelligent ring network cabinet, the business is expected to maintain a rapid expansion speed and contribute new performance increment to the company.
Investment suggestion: the company has abundant orders on hand and high downstream demand. We expect the company’s revenue to be RMB 14.8/20.1/2.73 billion in 2022 / 23 / 24, and the revenue growth rate to be 30.6% / 35.8% / 35.8%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 560 / 760 / 1.04 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 35.3% / 36.5% / 36.5%. Corresponding to the closing price on April 26, the company’s valuation for 22-24 years is divided into 17x, 12x and 9x. As the pioneer of the primary and secondary integration of distribution network intelligence, the company will highly benefit from the intelligent transformation of distribution network, the dual growth route of regional + category expansion, and maintain the “recommended” rating.
Risk warning: the risk of power grid investment and construction is less than expected; The risk that the market development outside the province is not as expected; The risk of epidemic development exceeding expectations.
