\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 850 Shenzhen Kedali Industry Co.Ltd(002850) )
Key investment points
The net profit attributable to the parent company in Q1 was 169 million yuan, with a month on month ratio of + 93.33% / + 1.26%, in line with market expectations. In 2022q1, the revenue was 1.57 billion yuan, with a month on month ratio of + 96% / + 6%, the net profit attributable to the parent company was 169 million yuan, with a month on month ratio of + 93% / + 1%, and the net interest rate was 10.8%; The net profit deducted from non parent company was 161 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 99%, which was lower than the lower limit of performance forecast, in line with market expectations. In terms of profitability, the gross profit margin of Q1 was 24.00%, with a month on month ratio of -1.93pct / + 2.33pct; The net interest rate attributable to the parent company was 10.80%, with a month on month ratio of -0.13pct / -0.48pct; Deducting 10.26% of the non parent net profit margin, the same as the month on month ratio of + 0.18pct / – 0.54pct. If the freight of 29 million yuan is deducted and included in the cost, the gross profit margin is 26%, unchanged year-on-year and slightly decreased month on month.
Revenue increased quarter by quarter, more than doubled in the whole year, and the profit was strong against pressure. In 2022q1, the company’s revenue still increased slightly month on month. Although affected by the epidemic in April, the company’s orders are still full, and the production scheduling is flat and slightly increased month on month. In Q2, the revenue is expected to increase by 20% month on month. The peak season and the release of new production capacity in the second half of the year will further accelerate, and the annual revenue is expected to double to 9-10 billion yuan. In terms of profitability, in Q1, due to the rise in the price of raw material aluminum and the increase in overtime pay during the Spring Festival, the company’s gross profit margin decreased slightly, but the net profit margin was basically flat and the profitability was strong against pressure. We expect Q2 aluminum price to decline slightly, and the net profit margin can still maintain about 11% in the whole year.
The company’s production base follows the forward-looking layout of key customers. The overseas market and large cylindrical structural parts are new highlights, with sustained high growth. Following major global and Chinese battery customers, the company has a forward-looking layout of production capacity, with leading advantages in equipment, raw materials and yield. It has obvious advantages in the medium and high-end market. The company’s three major bases in Europe have been gradually completed, starting from 2022h2 and large-scale in 2023. China’s Huizhou phase III, Liyang phase II, Yibin and Ningde production capacity have been put into operation successively. At the same time, the construction of Jingmen and Nanchang bases has been started. At present, the total output value of the company is planned to be nearly 20 billion yuan, far exceeding that of its competitors. At the same time, the company’s large cylindrical structural parts have been designated by major customers at home and abroad, starting from 2022h2, and have entered the European and American markets. It will become a new growth point in 2023, supporting the company’s further increase in global share.
The overall cost was well controlled, and the cost rate decreased year-on-year. In 2022q1, the total cost of the company during the period was 158 million yuan, with a month on month ratio of + 73.33% / + 65.47%, a cost rate of 10.08%, and a month on month ratio of -1.3pct / + 3.64pct. The stock of raw materials led to a significant increase in inventories and a year-on-year decline in operating net cash flow. In 2022q1, the company’s net cash flow outflow from operating activities was 167 million yuan, an increase of 1756% year-on-year, mainly due to the increase in production and procurement of the company in the current period and the increase in loans paid to suppliers.
Profit forecast and investment rating: considering the impact of epidemic factors, we revised the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 to RMB 1.055/16.57/2.403 billion (originally expected to be RMB 1.23/2.01/2.9 billion), with a year-on-year increase of 95% / 57% / 45%, corresponding to PE of 22x / 14x / 10x. We gave 35xpe in 2022 with a target price of RMB 158.6 and maintained the “buy” rating.
Risk tip: the sales volume of electric vehicles is lower than expected, and the aluminum price fluctuates as expected by the supermarket.
