\u3000\u30 Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) 57 Zoomlion Heavy Industry Science And Technology Co.Ltd(000157) )
Key investment points
Event: on April 26, the company released the first quarterly report of 2022. In the first quarter, the company achieved a revenue of 10.012 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 47.44%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 906 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 62.48%; The net profit attributable to the parent company after non deduction was 882 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 60.69%.
In the first quarter, the company's operating performance was under pressure and its profitability decreased.
(1) in the first quarter of 2022, the company's revenue decreased by 47.44% year-on-year, the net profit attributable to the parent decreased by 62.48% year-on-year, and the net profit attributable to the parent decreased by 60.69% year-on-year after deduction. The multi-point outbreak of the national epidemic has delayed the commencement of the traditional peak season this year. Combined with the impact of the high base in the same period last year, the sales volume of main construction machinery products decreased significantly year-on-year in the first quarter, and the operating performance of the company decreased.
(2) in the first quarter, the gross profit margin of the company was 20.07%, a year-on-year decrease of 7.10 percentage points; The net interest rate was 9.35%, a year-on-year decrease of 3.38 percentage points; The R & D expense / sales expense ratio was - 3.03% / 0.04% / 0.08% respectively, with a year-on-year increase rate of - 3.03% / 0.08% and a year-on-year increase rate of - 3.03% / 0.04% respectively. Affected by factors such as the continuous high price of raw materials such as steel, the gross profit margin and net profit margin of the company have decreased. The R & D expense rate of the company continues to increase. The company adheres to high R & D investment, comprehensively upgrades its technical products, and gradually enhances its competitive advantage.
(3) in the first quarter, the company's accounts receivable turnover days were 381.03 days, an increase of 213.12 days year-on-year; The inventory turnover days were 168.00 days, an increase of 65.81 days year-on-year; The company's net cash flow from operating activities was 590 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 77.82%. The company's sales receipts decreased, the purchase and payment increased relatively, and the net cash flow from operating activities decreased year-on-year in the first quarter.
The "wind" of steady growth policy has come, and the demand of construction machinery industry is expected to usher in marginal improvement.
(1) the "wind" of steady growth policy has come. The central economic work conference proposed that the economic work in 2022 should be stable and seek progress while maintaining stability, pointing out the direction for steady industrial growth. Recently, the national development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of industry and information technology, together with relevant parties, jointly issued several policies to promote the steady growth of the industrial economy, so as to give full play to the policy effect, effectively promote the steady operation of the industrial economy and strive to stabilize the macro-economic market.
(2) the countercyclical regulation of infrastructure investment continues to highlight. In the first quarter, the growth rate of infrastructure fixed asset investment increased by 10.5% year-on-year, and the growth rate gradually picked up. From January to February, the amount of special bonds issued by local governments reached 971.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 452.8%; The issuance progress of local government special bonds is significantly faster than that in previous years, and the commencement of large-scale projects is expected to speed up; The quota for project construction in the 3.65 trillion yuan of new local government special bonds this year has been issued, which will drive more social investment in infrastructure construction and play a key role in stabilizing the economy and employment.
(3) marginal relaxation of real estate regulation policies. Since the beginning of the year, the real estate regulation and control policies have continued to be loose. Starting from supporting the reasonable demand for house purchase and expanding the profits of projects in the land market, we have improved the downward trend of weak supply and demand in the real estate market. The marginal relaxation of real estate policies is expected to further drive the recovery of demand in the construction machinery industry.
(4) in 2022, the construction machinery industry may show the characteristics of "backward demand and no light off-season". In the first quarter of 2022, 77000 excavators were sold, a year-on-year decrease of 39.2%; Among them, 37000 units were sold in March, a year-on-year decrease of 53.1%. The outbreak of the epidemic in many places across the country delayed the commencement of the traditional peak season this year, and the sales of excavators fell sharply in March. If the epidemic situation is gradually and effectively controlled, the stagnant projects will start in an orderly manner, and the industry demand will move backward. Superimposed on the relatively low base in the same period last year, it is expected that the growth rate of excavator sales at the end of the second quarter or the third quarter of this year is expected to be positive, and the construction machinery industry may show the characteristics of "demand moves backward and not light in the off-season".
Maintain the "overweight" rating. The company is one of the leading enterprises of construction machinery in China. Since the beginning of the year, the "wind" of China's steady growth policy has come. The expectation of accelerating the landing of infrastructure projects and the continuous easing of real estate regulation policies have improved the marginal demand for construction machinery, and the company's operation is expected to remain stable. We estimate that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be RMB 7.182 billion, RMB 8.210 billion and RMB 9.390 billion respectively, and the corresponding PE will be 6.91, 6.05 and 5.29 times respectively. Maintain the "overweight" rating.
Risk tips: infrastructure and real estate investment is less than expected, industry cyclical decline, vicious market competition, deterioration of overseas trade environment, performance less than expected risks, etc.
