\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 461 Guangzhou Zhujiang Brewery Co.Ltd(002461) )
Key investment points
Event: Guangzhou Zhujiang Brewery Co.Ltd(002461) released the first quarterly report, 22q1 company achieved a revenue of 872 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.77%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 71 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.45%; The net profit attributable to the parent company after non deduction was 59 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 11.25%.
Guangzhou Zhujiang Brewery Co.Ltd(002461) 22q1's sales volume is better than the industry level, and the high-end production is progressing smoothly Guangzhou Zhujiang Brewery Co.Ltd(002461) 22q1 achieved a sales volume of 234800 tons, a year-on-year increase of 5.26%, better than the industry level in the same period. The product structure of 22q1 company was continuously optimized. The sales volume of pure draft beer was 115400 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 18.2%, and the proportion of sales volume increased by 5.37pcts year-on-year. 97 black gold pure production achieved a sales volume of 37500 tons, a year-on-year increase of 50.37%, and continued to grow at a high speed at the catering end. Under the impact of the 22q1 epidemic, the dynamic sales of non ready to drink channels in Guangdong were relatively bright, and the canning rate of Pearl beer increased by 3.61pcts to 37.97% year-on-year. From the perspective of revenue per ton of liquor, the operating revenue of 22q1 tons of liquor of Zhujiang Beer increased by 7.1% year-on-year to 3713 yuan / ton, and continued to enjoy the dividend under high-end. From the cost side, the operating cost of 22q1 tons of Zhujiang Beer increased by 10.7% year-on-year to 2213 yuan / ton, mainly due to the continuous upward cost of aluminum and other packaging materials. Subsequently, with the continuous decline of bulk prices, it is expected that the cost pressure of the company will slow down marginally. In terms of gross profit margin, the overall gross profit margin of Zhujiang Beer 22q1 was 40.4%, down 1.9% year-on-year, mainly suppressed by the cost side.
Expense control is better than expected, and Q2 cost pressure may continue to highlight. On the cost side, the sales cost rate of 22q1 Zhujiang Beer decreased by 1.8% year-on-year, mainly due to the reduction of channel costs under the impact of the epidemic in Guangdong in March; The management expense ratio decreased by about 0.9% year-on-year, mainly benefiting from the scale effect under the growth of sales volume. Therefore, the company's expenses during 22q1 were optimized by 2.1% year-on-year to hedge the impact of the decline in gross profit margin. Looking forward to Q2 in the peak season, the company may have a good performance in terms of sales volume, or under the background of gradual relaxation of epidemic control. In terms of cost dimension, the cost pressure of high priced aluminum in 22q1 may be highlighted in Q2 / 3, and subsequent companies may continue to hedge through product structure upgrading and reduction of discount.
The high-end of Zhujiang Beer has made good progress, and 97 black gold pure raw beer has continued to grow Guangzhou Zhujiang Brewery Co.Ltd(002461) in 2020, we upgraded the Chunsheng series, launched 97 black gold Chunsheng with a positioning of 10-12 yuan, adopted "human sea tactics + intensive cultivation", and began to seek a fixed-point breakthrough at the catering end. 97 Heijin Chunsheng opened the space of the price band of 10-12 yuan, successfully realized the sales volume of 156800 tons in 2021, and continued the high growth trend in 22q1.
The leading high-end of South China beer has been continuously promoted and the "buy" rating has been maintained. In view of the pressure of beer cost and repeated epidemic in 22 years, we expect to achieve revenue of RMB 4.946/5.246/5.556 billion from 2022 to 2024, with a year-on-year increase of 9.0% / 6.1% / 5.9%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 744 / 811 / 880 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 21.7% / 9.0% / 8.5%. Considering the rapid progress of Guangzhou Zhujiang Brewery Co.Ltd(002461) high-end, we maintain the "buy" rating.
Risk warning: repeated epidemic situation; The progress of high-end is less than expected; Increased competition; The moving pin is not as expected
