\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 519 Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) )
Event: in the first quarter of 2022, the company achieved a total operating revenue of 33.187 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.25%; The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be about 17.245 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.58%.
Comments:
The company made a good start in 2022, with bright data, which laid a solid foundation for the annual performance. Benefiting from the catalysis of Feitian’s large volume and new products on the market, as well as the direct price increase of some products and the expansion of the proportion of direct sales channels, the company achieved a total operating revenue of 33.187 billion yuan in the first quarter of 2022, with a year-on-year increase of 18.25%; It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company will be about 17.245 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 23.58%. 2022 has a good start, and the growth rate of net profit attributable to the parent company is higher than the previously published operating data. The company disclosed in its 2021 annual report that it will strive to achieve a year-on-year increase of about 15% in total operating revenue in 2022. The good start of the first quarter has laid the foundation for the company’s annual performance.
Maotai liquor and series liquor are driven by two wheels, and the direct marketing channels are developing rapidly. By category, the company implements the strategy of double wheel drive of Maotai liquor and series liquor. While Maotai liquor contributes to the performance increment, series liquor has achieved rapid growth. Maotai liquor of 2022q1 company achieved an operating revenue of 28.86 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.36%; The operating revenue of series liquor was 3.428 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 29.70%. In terms of sub channels, the company has continued to increase the layout of direct channels in recent years. Direct channels have achieved rapid development in 2022q1, and the proportion has further increased. In the first quarter of 2022, the company’s wholesale agency business achieved an operating revenue of 21.401 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.70%; The direct selling business achieved an operating revenue of 10.887 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 127.90%, and the proportion of the company’s direct selling business increased to 33.72%.
The profitability of the company has been steadily improved in 2022q1. In 2022q1, the company’s gross profit margin was 92.37%, an increase of 0.69 percentage points year-on-year. Benefiting from factors such as product structure upgrading and product price increase, the company’s gross profit margin increased in the first quarter of 2022. In terms of expense structure, the company’s 2022q1 sales expense rate was 1.60%, a year-on-year decrease of 0.42%; The management expense ratio was 6.49%, with a year-on-year increase of 0.11 percentage points; The financial expense ratio was -1.01%, a year-on-year decrease of 0.53%. Under the combined effect of gross profit margin and expense rate, the net profit margin of 2022q1 was 55.59%, an increase of 1.42 percentage points year-on-year, and the profitability was further improved.
Maintain recommended ratings. It is estimated that the company’s earnings per share in 2022 / 2023 will be 48.88 yuan and 57.49 yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE valuation will be 35 times and 30 times respectively. The company made a good start in 2022 with bright data. As the leader of the Baijiu industry, the company has a clear strategy of two wheel drive of Maotai liquor and series liquor, and the expansion of direct sales channels is expected to increase the ton price of products. With the release of production capacity, the company has room for further improvement in volume and price. Meanwhile, the newly appointed chairman has strong confidence in the company’s reform, the market has high expectations for the company’s reform, and the company’s performance is expected to make progress while maintaining stability. Maintain the “recommended” rating of the company.
Risk warning. Product upgrading is less than expected, direct sales channel expansion is less than expected, capacity release is less than expected, food safety problems, macroeconomic impact, etc.
