\u3000\u3 Guocheng Mining Co.Ltd(000688) 779 Hunan Changyuan Lico Co.Ltd(688779) )
Event:
The company released the first quarterly report of 2022: the operating revenue of the current period was 3.393 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 179.31%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 304 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 163.75%; Deduct non net profit of RMB 277 million, with a year-on-year increase of 151.73%.
The business volume of ternary cathode has increased simultaneously, and the product and customer structure have been gradually optimized
Benefiting from the high boom of downstream new energy vehicles, the company’s ternary positive electrode volume rose at the same time. In terms of volume, the shipment of ternary cathode of 22q1 company is expected to be 15000 tons, an increase of about 25% compared with 21q4. From the perspective of single unit profit of RMB 2.29 million, the net profit is expected to remain high at the level of RMB 1.29 million. The proportion of high nickel shipments of the company has increased significantly. Medium and low nickel is mainly of single crystal type, the product structure has been gradually optimized, and the customer recognition is high. The company deeply binds Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Byd Company Limited(002594) , Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) and other Chinese head battery factories. At the same time, the company actively expands overseas markets and cooperates with Toyota, Murata, Samsung SDI and LG chemistry to effectively ensure the quality of the company’s orders.
High level of integrated self supply, excellent cost control ability,
The company has a precursor production capacity of 30000 tons, and the proportion of self supply is close to 70%. The degree of integration is the highest in the industry. In the future, the company will continue to increase construction to match the expansion of ternary cathode production capacity. Relying on the strong shareholder background of Minmetals Group, the upstream raw material resources can be effectively guaranteed, and the company’s material and processing costs are lower than the industry average, highlighting its strong cost control ability.
The company’s production capacity increased rapidly and its position in the industry was further consolidated
In 2021, the first line of ternary cathode in phase I of high tech base was put into operation, and the company’s effective capacity reached 55000 tons. With the implementation of phase II 40000 ton ternary cathode project this year, it is expected that the effective capacity of the company in 22 / 23 years will reach 90000 / 130000 tons. In addition, 60000 tons of lithium iron phosphate is expected to be completed by the end of this year. At that time, the company’s production capacity will be more sufficient, form an effective supply to the downstream market, and the performance will continue to be realized.
Investment advice
We maintain the previous forecast of the company’s net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 1.29/19.46/1.98 billion on 22 / 23 / 24, EPS is 0.67/1.01/1.03 respectively, and the corresponding P / E is 21x / 14x / 14x, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tips
The development of new energy vehicles is less than expected; Capacity expansion and product development are less than expected; Material price fluctuation, etc.
