\u3000\u30 Beijing Zznode Technologies Co.Ltd(003007) 29 Loctek Ergonomic Technology Corp(300729) )
Event: the company released the first quarterly report of 2022. In the first quarter of 2022, the company achieved a revenue of 764 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.83%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 18.015 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 43.64%; The non net profit deducted was -2.9263 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 109.66%; The non recurring profit and loss is 20.94 million yuan, which is mainly contributed by the government subsidy (16.33 million yuan) and the profit and loss on the disposal of non current assets (4.42 million yuan) included in the current profit and loss; The net cash flow generated from operating activities was -15.71 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 352.22%. It is judged that it is due to the joint influence of factors such as the payment for shipbuilding and the increase of leased warehouses in the current period.
Shipping and exchange rate are under pressure, and short-term profitability is damaged. On the profit side, the gross profit margin of 2022q1 company is 39.8% (- 2.09pct.); The net interest rate attributable to the parent company is 2.36% (-4.86pct.). On the expense side, the company's sales expense rate in 2022q1 is 28.14% (+ 2.95pct.), It is mainly due to the sharp rise of sea freight year-on-year; The management fee rate was 4.71% (- 0.45 PCT.); The R & D expense rate is 3.93% (- 0.17 PCT.); The financial expense rate is 2.75% (+ 1.08pct.), Mainly due to the increase of exchange loss.
The adverse factors are expected to be alleviated and the profit can be repaired. 1) Freight: according to the company's announcement, the weighted average price of 40HQ high-end cabinets has increased from about 6000 US dollars / cabinet in 2021q1 to about 15000 US dollars / cabinet in 2022q1. According to our calculation, the company's sea freight in 2022q1 is about 60 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 178%, accounting for 14.45% (+ 8.43 PCT.) of the company's cross-border e-commerce business revenue. Looking forward to 2022, on the one hand, the current CCFI composite index has decreased by 7% compared with the beginning of the year, and the downward trend of sea freight fluctuation is expected to continue. On the other hand, the company is expected to control the transportation cost and efficiency by signing a framework agreement with the shipping company, choosing the opportunity and locking the price, and investing in the construction of a 1800teu container ship by itself. 2) Exchange rate: during the reporting period, the average exchange rate of US dollar against RMB decreased from 6.51 to 6.36, which increased the exchange loss of 2022q1 company. On April 25, the central parity rate of the US dollar against the RMB was 6.49, an appreciation of about 1.7% compared with the beginning of the year. The US dollar gradually strengthened, adding that the company hedged the risk of exchange rate fluctuations by locking foreign exchange and other means, and the profit recovery can be expected.
Focus on linear drive products and develop Wuxi Online Offline Communication Information Technology Co.Ltd(300959) channels together. 1) Product side: linear drive lifting system products are still the core incremental source of the company's business. The revenue in 2021 is 1.645 billion yuan (+ 72.58%), and it is expected to increase by about 21% in 2022q1. 2) Channel side: in the future, the company will explore dealer channels and actively layout offline stores to build a new pattern of China International double cycle and mutual promotion. In 2021, the company's online revenue totaled 1.605 billion yuan (+ 39.30%), of which the revenue of independent stations was 527 million yuan (+ 89.19%), the revenue of China's online channels was 170 million yuan (+ 44%), and the total offline revenue was 1.063 billion yuan (+ 40.53%). We expect the contribution of the company's cross-border e-commerce revenue in 2022q1 to increase by about 13%, of which the short-term growth rate of independent stations due to the obstruction and shortage of shipping due to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine may be slightly lower than that of Amazon e-commerce channel.
Overseas warehouse business deepens the moat, and new products create the second curve. 1) The company makes every effort to promote the innovative service complex project of public overseas warehouses of cross-border e-commerce, and adopts the way of "small warehouse and large warehouse". By the end of 2021, the company has 15 warehouses worldwide. At present, it has covered the links of overseas warehousing and tail delivery, and is extending to the first sea transportation. 3) The company continues to increase R & D investment and build various applications of linear drive technology in healthy and smart office scenes and smart home scenes, such as intelligent electric bed, lifting coffee table, Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) power generation system based on linear drive, which is expected to create the second growth curve of the company.
Investment suggestion: the company's ergonomic independent brand has outstanding advantages, the overseas warehouse deepens the competitive barrier, and the new products create the second curve, which is expected to realize the common development of China's international business. We expect the company to achieve revenue of 3.883 billion yuan, 5.096 billion yuan and 6.538 billion yuan from 2022 to 2024, an increase of 35.3%, 31.2% and 28.3% at the same time, net profit attributable to parent company of 270 million yuan, 388 million yuan and 534 million yuan, an increase of 46.3%, 43.6% and 37.6% at the same time, and EPS of 1.22, 1.76 and 2.42 yuan, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tips: the risk of intensified Sino US trade friction, intensified industrial competition, raw material prices, shipping costs and exchange rate fluctuations
