\u3000\u30 Xuchang Ketop Testing Research Institute Co.Ltd(003008) 87 Pony Testing International Group Co.Ltd(300887) )
Event: the company disclosed the first quarterly report of 2022.
Key investment points
2022q1 turned losses into profits, slightly exceeding market expectations
In the first quarter of 2022, the company realized an operating revenue of 534 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 71.21%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 5.5112 million yuan, with a base of - 4.257 billion yuan in the same period last year, turning losses into profits year-on-year, slightly exceeding the upper limit of 4-5 million yuan in the previous performance forecast. In the first quarter of 2022, the company deducted 105484 million yuan of net profit not attributable to the parent company, with a base of -4.976 billion yuan in the same period last year, significantly turning losses into profits year-on-year. The company slightly exceeded the market expectation in the first quarter of 2022. We judge that it is mainly because the nucleic acid detection business of the company has increased rapidly since March, filling the impact of other sectors. Looking ahead, we expect that the nucleic acid detection sector of Q2 company is expected to maintain a high growth rate. If the epidemic is effectively controlled in the second half of the year, the food, environment, automobile detection and other businesses will resume normal operation, and the company will resume a normal growth rate of about 30%.
The ability to control fees is optimized, and there is great room to improve the profit margin
In the first quarter of 2022, the company's comprehensive gross profit margin was 39.13%, with a year-on-year increase of + 9.02pct; The net interest rate was 1.03%, with a year-on-year increase of + 14.69pct; During the period, the R & D cost was -6.5t/7pct/10.0%, and the year-on-year control rate was -6.5t/7pct/10.0%, of which the R & D cost was -6.5t/7pct/10.0%, respectively. With the acceleration of the company's performance growth and the slowdown of employee growth and capital expenditure, the company's per capita output value and net interest rate are expected to increase steadily.
The net operating cash flow of the company in the first quarter of 2022 was - 75 million yuan, with a base of - 121 million yuan in the same period last year, mainly because the first quarter was the off-season for the company's payment collection.
The third-party detection passes through cattle and bears, and the domestic leader is preferred
The third-party detection has a fast and stable growth, passing through cattle and bears. In 2020, the scale of China's third-party testing market was 191.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 13%. From 2013 to 2020, cagr19%, and the growth rate of the industry was more than twice that of GDP. In 2020, the share of Pony Testing International Group Co.Ltd(300887) China is only 0.74%, and the leading share has enough room to improve. Bull stocks are frequently detected at the golden track. Overseas detection leaders SGS, Eurofins, Intertek and bv have outperformed the market for a long time. The valuation center was 30 times from 2011 to 2021. Compared with the single digit growth rate of foreign-funded leaders, domestic leaders should have a premium based on excellent growth.
Optimistic about the performance growth rate of 30% in the next three years and welcome the opportunity
We are optimistic about the CAGR of the company's net profit from 2021 to 2024, which is about 30%, twice the compound growth rate of the company before 20162020. The growth ranks in the forefront of the industry, and is expected to welcome double-click opportunities: ① laboratory capacity expansion, capacity climbing of large laboratories such as Shanghai and Wuhan, and elimination of factors that suppress performance growth in the early stage. ② Opportunities for fast-growing segments; ③ M & a performance; ④ The growth rate of fixed costs such as employees and depreciation slowed down, and the profitability increased.
Profit forecast and investment rating: we expect the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 to be RMB 289 (maintained) / 378 (maintained) / 488 million, corresponding to 32 / 25 / 19 times of PE, maintaining the "overweight" rating.
Risk warning: the epidemic situation repeatedly affects the normal operation; Macroeconomic and policy changes; The commissioning process of the laboratory is not as expected; The synergy effect after M & A is less than expected; Brand and credibility are adversely affected.
