\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 568 Shanghai Bairun Investment Holding Group Co.Ltd(002568) )
Event: Shanghai Bairun Investment Holding Group Co.Ltd(002568) released the annual report of 2021 and the first quarterly report of 2022. In 2021, the operating revenue was 2.59 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 34.7%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 670 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.4%, of which the operating revenue of 2021q4 was 680 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 103 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 32.4%. In 2022q1, the operating revenue was 540 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 4.1%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 90 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 29.9%.
In the past 21 years, the pre blending business has developed steadily and channels have been continuously developed. 1) By product: the revenue of pre mixed cocktails in 21 years was 780 million yuan, an increase of 31.64% at the same time; The sales volume was 24.99 million cases, an increase of 38.20% at the same time. In the year of 21, the income of edible essence reached 95million yuan, an increase of 42.06%; The sales volume was 2.85 million kg, an increase of 47.52% at the same time. In addition, the growth potential of the company’s whisky factory was officially put into operation in the 21st year. 2) In terms of sub channels: offline retail is still the main sales channel of the company’s products, with a revenue of 1.814 billion yuan in 21 years, an increase of 23.70% at the same time. Online channels maintained rapid growth, with a revenue of 648 million yuan in 21 years, an increase of 70.29% at the same time. The growth rate of ready to drink channels slowed down in the second half of the year, and the annual revenue of 21 years was 41 million yuan, an increase of 52.35% at the same time. Focusing on qiangshuang, the company continued to sink its channels. The number of dealers increased from 1578 at the end of 2020 to 1888 at the end of 2021, with a net increase of 310 dealers.
21q4 sales expenses increased significantly, putting pressure on profits. The gross profit margin of the company’s sales in 21 years / 21q4 was 65.43% / 62.29% respectively, with a year-on-year increase of -0.07pcts / + 5.03pcts; The net profit margin of sales in 21 years / 21q4 was 25.61% / 15.05% respectively, with a year-on-year increase of -2.18pcts / – 10.27pcts. From the cost side, the sales expense rate of 21 years / 21q4 was 21.85% / 26.98% respectively, with a year-on-year increase of -0.37pcts / + 13.24pcts. The sales expense rate of 21q4 increased significantly. The main reason is that after the new products are launched, the company increases the marketing expenses and increases the interaction with consumers. The management expense ratio of 21 years / 21q4 was 5.26% / 6.85% respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 0.03pcts / + 1.04pcts.
22q1 profitability is further under pressure. The gross profit margin in 2022q1 was 62.51%, with a year-on-year increase of -4.81pcts. The ratio of sales / management / R & D / financial expenses of 2022q1 company was + 2.93pcts / + 2.19pcts / + 0.71pcts / + 1.43pcts respectively year-on-year. The increase in the rate of administrative expenses and R & D expenses is mainly due to the increase in the company’s new equity incentive expenses and employee compensation. The increase of financial expense rate is mainly due to the increase of interest expense of corporate convertible bonds. Overall, the net profit margin of 22q1 company was 16.95%, with a year-on-year increase of -8.33pcs.
The company’s performance in the first quarter was lower than expected, which was mainly affected by the spot distribution of the epidemic. The production and operation activities of factories in Shanghai and Tianjin are blocked, and the epidemic has led to a significant increase in logistics costs; The weak growth of external sales also dragged down the performance. On the other hand, the company’s publicity activities were carried out normally, resulting in an increase in the rate of sales expenses, resulting in profits lower than market expectations. Although the repeated epidemic in Shanghai in the short term is expected to still have a great impact on the company’s normal business activities, looking at it for a longer time, the current pre blending industry is still in a business cycle, and the company, as a leading company, benefits from the rapid growth of the industry; The early adjustment of the sales team has been completed, and the connection between the new team and the dealer is relatively smooth; This year, the company will increase the investment in channel laying and brand promotion of new products, which has become the third largest single product of the company, and is expected to grow further. The subdivision of low alcohol liquor belongs to the current consumption upgrading direction. Under internal and external factors, although the company’s short-term growth is blocked, it still has the potential to expand categories in the long term. It is suggested to pay close attention to the publicity and distribution actions and network laying in the next step, waiting for the improvement of the external environment.
Profit forecast, valuation and rating: considering that the epidemic has a great impact on the company’s production and operation, and there is still uncertainty in the recovery of consumer demand, we lowered the company’s forecast of net profit attributable to the parent company in 202223 to 813 / 985 million yuan respectively (25.6% / 33.2% lower than the previous time), and introduced the forecast of net profit attributable to the parent company in 2024 to 1.192 billion yuan. Equivalent to 1.08/1.31/1.59 yuan of EPS in 202224 respectively, and the current share price corresponding to PE in 202224 is 27x / 22x / 18x respectively. Pre mixed liquor is a high-quality track in the food and beverage track. As a leader in the industry, Bairun has long-term growth potential. We maintain the “buy” rating.
Risk warning: the intensity of marginal competition in the industry is higher than expected; The rise in raw material costs was higher than expected.
