\u3000\u30 Xuchang Ketop Testing Research Institute Co.Ltd(003008) 93 Zhejiang Songyuan Automotive Safety Systems Co.Ltd(300893) )
Event: the company released the annual report of 2021. The annual revenue reached 745 million, a year-on-year increase of + 39%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 111 million, a year-on-year increase of + 23.58%. Net operating cash flow was 105 million, a year-on-year increase of + 88.42%. The performance is in line with expectations.
1. Performance analysis. The company's annual gross profit margin was 33.1%, with a year-on-year increase of -1.34pct, which had a great impact on raw materials. The fourth fee was 15.9%, with a year-on-year increase of + 1.42pct, mainly due to the management fee of 7%, an increase of 1.4pct (the management fee is mainly due to the increase of employee salary, + 104%). The annual net interest rate attributable to the parent company was 14.9%, with a year-on-year increase of -1.9pct. Q4 achieved a revenue of 250 million, with a year-on-year increase of + 35% and a month on month increase of + 54%. The high growth rate is mainly due to the batch production of new products airbag, and the development of the company has entered a new stage. Q4 net profit was 36.09 million, a year-on-year increase of + 26.42% and a month on month increase of + 60.74%. In the fourth quarter, 172w sets of airbags and 17100 sets of steering wheel were supplied respectively, with a revenue of 4.705 million yuan, an average of 146 yuan for each airbag and 129 yuan for the steering wheel. In 2022, new products will continue to expand revenue and achieve rapid growth.
2. High value-added industries with excellent competition pattern. The automotive passive safety system industry has high barriers and relatively concentrated global market share. At present, there are only 3-4 core suppliers of automotive safety system in the world, and the industry presents the market structure of foreign oligopoly. However, with the sharp rise in the sales volume of our independent vehicle enterprises, the increase in the pressure of cost reduction in the industry, and the accumulation of the ability of independent suppliers, the whole automotive passive safety system industry has ushered in a high-speed bonus period of domestic substitution. As the only passive security enterprise in China that relies on independent cultivation and listing, Songyuan's cost is significantly better than that of foreign capital, and has formed a complete R & D and production capacity over the years. It will make a breakthrough and usher in new opportunities in this round of major iterations.
3. Expand the product line and significantly improve the value of single vehicle. The company has expanded from safety belt to airbag and steering wheel, and has become a supplier of passive safety system. The market space has also been greatly improved. According to the data of relevant enterprises, the airbag steering wheel Market is about twice the market space of safety belt. At present, the company's new products have carried out project development cooperation with Geely Automobile, SAIC GM Wuling, Chery Automobile, BAIC Foton, Hezhong automobile and Weima automobile, including supporting supply of Wuling Hongguang Mini and Chery QQ ice cream models, with great growth potential.
Investment strategy: considering that the equity incentive fee is close to 2000W this year, the cost of raw materials continues to be high, and the shutdown caused by the epidemic, we reduce our expectations accordingly. We predict that the company's net profit attributable to the parent company in 22 / 23 will be 159 / 246 million (original 2 / 280 million). At present, the stock price corresponds to only 16 times of the company's dynamic PE in 2022. We give the growth company a valuation of 30 times, and the target price is 32 yuan, maintaining the company's "buy" rating.
Risk tip: the sales volume of customers is less than expected, and the popularization of new energy is less than expected.
