\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 519 Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) )
Event: the company released the first quarterly report of 2022. In 2022q1, the operating revenue was 32.296 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 18.43%, and the net profit attributable to the parent was 17.245 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 23.58%. After deduction, the net profit attributable to the parent was 17.243 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 23.43%.
Key investment points
22q1’s profit exceeded expectations, and the proportion of direct sales reached a new high. In 2022q1, the net profit attributable to the parent company was RMB 17.245 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 23.58%, which exceeded the previous performance forecast, and the net profit attributable to the parent company increased by about 19% year-on-year. In terms of channels, direct sales channels performed well. The revenue of 22q1 direct sales channels was 10.887 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 127.9%, accounting for 34% of revenue, and the revenue of wholesale channels was 21.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of – 4.71%. By product, the operating revenue of Maotai liquor was 28.86 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 17.36%, accounting for 89% of the revenue; The operating revenue of series liquor was 3.428 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 29.7%, both maintaining double-digit rapid growth. By the end of the first quarter of 2012, the company had contractual liabilities of 8.322 billion yuan, an increase of 2.981 billion yuan year-on-year, and 2190 dealers, including 2086 in China (China reduced three series of liquor dealers in the first quarter).
The performance contribution points are rich, and Maotai has both certainty and flexibility. From 2022q1, 1) the non-standard products of dealers were uniformly picked up from direct stores before the year, and the price was higher than the ex factory price, which was reflected in the significant increase in the proportion of direct sales channels of the company; 2) The prices of non-standard Maotai and series liquor have been raised. In January 15, the prices of Maotai, golden Prince and other large single products have been raised one after another; 3) New product release: in addition to the rare Maotai listed at the end of last year, the company launched a new product 1935 on January 18. We expect the shipment volume from January to February to be about 600700 tons, contributing about 1 billion revenue.
The profitability was further improved, and the net interest rate was raised to 55.6%. The gross profit margin of the company’s 2022q1 sales was 92.37%, year-on-year + 0.69pct, and the sales expense rate was 1.60%, year-on-year -0.42pct; The rate of administrative expenses (including R & D expenses) is 6.49%; Year on year + 0.11pct; The tax rate was 13.07%, with a year-on-year rate of -0.57pct, the rate remained normal, promoted the net profit margin of sales by 55.59%, with a year-on-year rate of + 1.42pct, and the profitability increased steadily.
Profit forecast and investment rating: the company’s current rating remains stable and the channel inventory is low. We believe that the epidemic has little impact on the Maotai scene; In the long run, the company has clear ideas, Maotai e-commerce has been gradually promoted, marketing reform has been implemented step by step, and governance and operation have continued to improve from the inside out. Without considering the price increase, we adjusted the net profit attributable to the parent company from RMB 616.5/706.8/80.64 billion to RMB 62 / 721.5/83.6 billion from 2022 to 2024, and the PE valuation corresponding to the current market value is 35x / 30x / 26x respectively. Maintain the “buy” rating.
Risk tips: the reform promotion is less than expected, the price increase is less than expected, and food safety problems
