\u3000\u3 Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) 801 Zbom Home Collection Co.Ltd(603801) )
Key investment points
Category: wardrobe and wooden door increased, and category synergy continued to appear
2021a: the cabinet revenue is 2.934 billion (+ 17.43%), which is expected to increase by single digits, and the whole decoration and bulk channels contribute mainly to the growth. Wardrobe 1.76 billion (+ 54.25%). After the split, the same store increased by about 20-30% in 21 years and 20 +% in 20 years. The same store growth has become the core growth driver of wardrobe business. In 22 years, while further opening stores at a high speed, the company has increased the management and empowerment of franchisees and improved their customer service and marketing capabilities. The wardrobe business is expected to maintain a growth of more than 40%. Mumen has 170 million (+ 292%). In the past 21 years, it has focused on developing bulk business, signed 13 real estate strategic contracts, and is expected to achieve 100 million yuan in bulk in the next 21 years. In the past 22 years, while further developing bulk business, the company will increase the expansion of retail business. From the perspective of gross profit margin of various categories, the gross profit margin of cabinets is 40.5% (- 1.34%), the gross profit margin of wardrobe is 34.43% (+ 1.03%), and the gross profit margin of wooden doors is 13.04% (- 2.94%). In the past 21 years, affected by the intensification of bulk business competition and the rise of raw material prices, the gross profit margin of kitchen cabinets and wooden doors has declined as a whole, the scale effect of wardrobe business has appeared, and the gross profit margin has increased steadily.
2022q1: cabinet revenue of 365 million yuan (+ 1.34%), gross profit margin of 43.03% (+ 1.42%); Wardrobe 330 million yuan (+ 19.74%), 34.00% (+ 0.7%); The wooden door is 22.49 million yuan (+ 183%), and the gross profit margin is 8.00% (- 10.32%). In March, affected by the epidemic situation, Zhibang still achieved steady growth due to its warm-up activities and more sinking store layout from February after the Spring Festival. Household demand is rigid. It is expected that unrealized orders in Q1 will be deferred to Q2 and the second half of the year due to the impact of the epidemic, which is optimistic about the growth of the company throughout the year.
Channel: Q1 opened a store against the trend, expanded the whole package at a high speed, and gradually converged the bulk
Retail channels: in 21 years, the dealer channel revenue was 2.753 billion (+ 29.57%), and the direct channel revenue was 322 million (+ 39.97%). In 21 years, the total number of stores of the company was 3742 (+ 510), of which the number of cabinets, wardrobe, wooden doors and direct sales stores reached 1691 (+ 115), 1619 (+ 195), 399 (+ 196) and 33 (+ 4) respectively. Therefore, it is estimated that the same store and new stores contributed about 16% growth in 21 years. The revenue of 22q1 dealer channel and direct channel increased by 11.55% / 25.87% respectively, and the number of stores was 3928 (+ 186).
It is expected that the company will build a high-speed decoration product line and supplement the channel volume by 2.1 billion, so as to realize the growth of brand decoration in the next 2 years (relying on the channel volume and brand decoration line, the company is expected to build a brand decoration line and strengthen the brand decoration force by 2.1 billion).
Bulk channels: in the 21st year, the revenue reached 1.651 billion (+ 40.59%), accounting for 33.95%. In the second half of the 21st year, the risk of bulk industry intensified. The company has selected to sign orders. While bulk channels continue to compete for positions, it has increased the expansion of state-owned enterprise customers and controlled business risks. At the end of the 21st century, Poly has become the company's largest bulk customer, with long cooperation time, and is expected to be deeply bound in the future. Under the dual influence of selective contract signing and epidemic situation in 21q1, the revenue of bulk business was 128 million yuan (- 1.54%), and the gross profit margin was 40.92% (- 1.13 PCT).
Profitability and cash flow are under short-term pressure, and advances received perform well year-on-year
1) the gross profit margin is 36.24% (-1.83pct) and 22q1 (- 1.40pct) in 21 years, which is mainly due to the rise in the price of raw materials + the preference of bulk low-risk customers to give up part of the profit space.
2) the cost rate during the period is 24.49% (- 1.76pct) in 21 years, of which the sales cost rate is 14.66% (- 0.27pct), and the investment in employee salary and engineering service fee is increased; The ratio of management + R & D expenses decreased by 1.27pct to 9.96% year-on-year, mainly due to the implementation of talent reserve plan and the increase of scale development staff; The financial expense ratio decreased by 0.22pct to - 0.14% year-on-year, due to the increase of interest income. During the period of 22q1 company, the expense rate was 30.92% (+ 1.26%), of which the sales expense rate was 16.34% (+ 1.85%), the management + R & D expense rate decreased by 1.21pct to 14.52% year on year, and the financial expense rate was 0.06% (+ 0.62%).
3) asset impairment: in the past 21 years, the company has accrued asset impairment of 43.33 million yuan, including contract asset impairment of 35.44 million yuan and credit impairment of 11.69 million yuan, which is expected to come from bulk business.
4) the net interest rate attributable to the parent company is 9.81% (- 0.49%) in 21 years and 6.76% (- 0.65pct) in 2022q1.
5) net operating cash flow was 496 million (- 23.57%) in 21 years and - 293 million (21q1 -198 million) in 22q1, mainly due to the rise in the price of raw materials during the epidemic and the company's increase in raw material preparation; Receivables were 1.082 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 513 million and a month on month increase of 404 million, mainly due to the shortage of funds in the real estate industry, the large proportion of bulk business of large companies and the large number of engineering business receivables. Advances received in 21q1 was 408 million, an increase of 73.47 million year-on-year.
Profit forecast and valuation
The company's channel expansion and category integration are smooth, and the medium and long-term growth momentum is sufficient. In the short term, after the epidemic is controlled, the release of rigid demand for home decoration is expected to drive the performance growth in the second half of the year. It is estimated that the company will realize revenue of 6.253/75.95/9.166 billion yuan in 22-24 years, with a year-on-year increase of 21.36% / 21.45% / 20.68%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 607 / 733 / 892 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 20.1% / 20.74% / 21.66%. The current market value corresponds to the PE of 22-24 years, which is 11.37x/9.42x/7.74x respectively, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tip: channel construction fails to meet expectations, and real estate regulation exceeds expectations
