\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 493 Rongsheng Petro Chemical Co.Ltd(002493) )
In 2021, the net profit attributable to the parent company was 12.8 billion, a year-on-year increase of + 75%
In 2021, the company achieved an operating revenue of 177 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 65%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 12.8 billion, a year-on-year increase of + 75%; Cash flow from operating activities was 33.6 billion, a year-on-year increase of + 92%. Weighted average roe = 30%, year-on-year + 3.6pct. The planned dividend is 0.15 yuan per share. In the single quarter of 2021q4, the net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.7 billion, with a deduction of non-3.1 billion.
Zhejiang Petrochemical: it will be greatly improved in 2021, and the second phase will contribute to the increment in 2022
In 2021, Zhejiang Petrochemical achieved an operating revenue of 117.5 billion, a year-on-year increase of + 81%; The net profit was 22.3 billion, a year-on-year increase of + 99%. Zhejiang Petrochemical’s profit increased significantly year-on-year. We judge that it is mainly due to the improvement of the industry boom in 2021 and the small incremental contribution of Zhejiang Petrochemical’s phase II production. The current consumption tax was 7.7 billion, a significant increase year-on-year.
At present, Zhejiang Petrochemical phase II has been fully put into operation, adding 20 million tons of oil refining capacity, 6.6 million tons of aromatics and 1.4 million tons of ethylene production capacity. Downstream layout differentiated varieties, including EVA / LDPE, fdpe, polycarbonate, etc.
We expect that in 2022q1, the contribution increment of Zhejiang Petrochemical phase II is expected to lead to the increase of performance month on month; Q2 is affected by high oil prices, and the profitability under the stress test remains to be observed.
Polyester business: PX and polyester improved slightly, PTA profit decreased
In terms of PX, the net profit of the subsidiary CICC Petrochemical was 1.2 billion, a year-on-year increase of + 400 million. In terms of PTA, the net profits of subsidiaries yishanhua, Zhejiang Yisheng and Hainan Yisheng were 100 million, with a year-on-year increase of – 2.6 billion. In terms of polyester, the net profit of subsidiaries Shengyuan chemical fiber and Yongsheng technology was 560 million, a year-on-year increase of + 200 million.
New material projects are advancing steadily
The project company Rongsheng new materials (Zhoushan) Co., Ltd. has been established to build a number of petrochemical middle and lower reaches high value-added projects. According to the government website, some of the products include polystyrene, SBS, SIS and nylon 666, which is expected to be put into operation in 2024.
Profit forecast and Valuation: considering the impact of high oil prices, the performance forecast for 2022 / 2023 was lowered to 16.3/19.3 billion (formerly 20.2/22.7 billion), and the performance forecast for 2024 was increased to 22.4 billion. The current market value corresponds to pe8 / 7 / 6 times, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tip: the risk that the high oil price for a long time will affect the profitability of the refining and chemical industry; The risk of polyester demand affected by the epidemic; Risk of new material projects advancing slower than expected
