\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 519 Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) )
Events
On April 26, the company released the first quarterly report of 22 years. In the first quarter, the total revenue was 33.19 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 18.3%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.725 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 23.6%.
Business analysis
New products contribute to incremental performance, and the construction of direct sales continues to accelerate. 1) In terms of products, the revenue of Maotai liquor was 28.86 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 17.4%, which is expected to be the advance of non-standard delivery + the incremental contribution of rare Maotai; The revenue of series liquor is 3.43 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 29.7%, and the contribution of Maotai 1935 single product is expected to be 900 million +. 2) In terms of channels, the revenue of wholesale channels was 21.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 4.7%; The revenue of direct sales channels was 10.99 billion yuan, up + 127.9% year-on-year, accounting for 33.7%, up + 16.2pct year-on-year. It is expected that the superposition of non-standard rhythm in advance + the proportion of goods taken by direct sales channels will increase. Considering the launch of I Maotai at the end of March, we believe that the company’s direct selling construction will continue to be promoted. 3) The scale of advance receipts (contract liabilities + other current liabilities) at the end of the first quarter was 9.26 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 54.0%. It is expected that the rhythm of channel payment will accelerate, demonstrating the strong bargaining power of the company.
The profitability is further improved, and the elasticity of profit side is higher than expected. 22q1’s net profit attributable to the parent company increased by 23.6%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company reached 55.6%, with a year-on-year increase of + 1.4pct, exceeding previous expectations. 1) From the perspective of spin off: the gross profit margin was 92.4%, with a year-on-year increase of + 0.7pct, which was mainly driven by the optimization of product structure (year-on-year volume of non-standard Maotai + gross profit margin of Maotai 1935 series liquor) and the construction of direct sales channels. The cost side sales / management rate is -0.4pct / + 0.1pct year-on-year respectively, and the proportion of taxes and surcharges is -0.6pct. It is expected that it is due to the difference in the release rhythm of taxes and fees between quarters. From the perspective of the whole year, we expect that the fluctuation of cost rate is limited. 2) In terms of cash flow, the cash received from 22q1 sales was + 41.2% year-on-year, with high cash flow quality; The net outflow of operating cash is 6.88 billion yuan, which is the net outflow of interbank deposits of the group finance company. We expect it to be part of the capital disturbance of Xijiu company.
Both inside and outside, leading the wind and waves. Internally, the Baijiu business of the technology development company was incorporated into the health liquor industry last month. The group marketing company is currently undergoing restructuring, and its internal governance has improved. Externally, I Maotai’s sales exceeded 1.4 billion in nearly one month of trial operation. It is suggested to continue to pay attention to the long logic of channel profit recovery under the improvement of the company’s price control ability. Under the rapid development of the company, the medium and long-term growth center is expected to move upward.
Investment advice
We expect the growth rate of net profit attributable to parent company in 22-24 years to be 18.3% / 17.3% / 16.7% respectively, corresponding to 62.1/728/85 billion yuan of net profit attributable to parent company; EPS is 49.42/57.98/67.64 yuan, and the corresponding PE is 35 / 30 / 26x respectively, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tips
Macroeconomic downside risk, repeated epidemic risk, channel reform is less than predicted, and food safety problems.
