\u3000\u30 Shenzhen Zhenye(Group)Co.Ltd(000006) 72 Gansu Shangfeng Cement Co.Ltd(000672) )
Event:
Annual report: in 2021, the company achieved a revenue of 8.315 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 29.26%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.176 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 7.42%; The net profit attributable to the parent company after deduction was RMB 2.099 billion, a year-on-year increase of + 13.25%. Among them, the revenue in the fourth quarter was 2.623 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 32.39%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 587 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 14.70%; Deduct non net profit of 579 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 0.95%. The annual gross profit margin and net profit margin were 43.58% and 27.11% respectively, with a year-on-year increase of -5.02 and -4.71 PCT; Q4 gross profit margin was 45.12%, year-on-year -8.03pct.
First quarter report: in the first quarter of 2022, the revenue was 1.491 billion, a year-on-year increase of + 21.78%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 341 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 3.79%; The net profit attributable to the parent company after deducting non-profit was 315 million, a year-on-year increase of – 9.31%; The gross profit margin was 41.14%, with a year-on-year increase of -5.78pct.
In terms of production capacity: in 2021, the annual production capacity of cement clinker is about 14.94 million tons, cement is about 17.5 million tons, waste heat power generation capacity is 68mw, commercial concrete is Shanghai Pudong Development Bank Co.Ltd(600000) m3, and aggregate production capacity is about 15 million tons. At present, the projects under construction include 5000t / d clinker line and supporting grinding production line of Guangxi subsidiary, sand and gravel aggregate production line in Inner Mongolia, etc.
Comments:
(1) stable main business structure
In 2021, the income of cement + clinker accounted for 86.7%, which increased slightly. The main changes in business structure were real estate and environmental protection disposal, accounting for 0.27% and 1.58% respectively, with a year-on-year increase of -2.61 and + 1.5pct.
In terms of sales volume, 20.81 million tons of cement clinker were sold in 2021, a year-on-year increase of + 22.48% (the main contribution was from cement, an increase of 32.58%), and 3.465 million tons of cement clinker were sold in 2022q1, a year-on-year increase of – 5.92% (affected by the epidemic). In 2021, the aggregate sales volume was 133499 million tons, with a slight year-on-year increase of 3.3%, and the concrete sales volume was 557900 m3, with a year-on-year increase of 36%.
(2) ton index performance
2021: the average price per ton of cement clinker is 346.39 yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 25 yuan; The cost per ton was 204.09 yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 35 yuan; The gross profit per ton was 142.31 yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 10 yuan; The net profit per ton after deducting non is 101 yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 8 yuan. The cost per ton is 43.7 yuan, with a year-on-year increase of + 7.5 yuan, of which the sales cost per ton is + 0.4 yuan, the management cost per ton is + 1.2 yuan, and the financial cost per ton is + 1.5 yuan. The gross profit margin of aggregate was stable at a high level, nearly 80%, a slight increase of 0.32pct year-on-year, and the gross profit per ton was about 40 yuan.
2022q1: we estimate that the average price per ton of cement clinker has increased year-on-year, and the profitability has maintained year-on-year improvement.
(3) cost
2021: the company’s sales expense ratio was 1.43%, with a year-on-year increase of + 0.03pct, mainly due to the increase of cement packaging fee, handling fee and new business promotion fee; The rate of administrative expenses was 6.53%, basically unchanged year-on-year; The financial expense ratio was 0.81%, with a year-on-year increase of + 0.34pct, mainly due to the increase of financing for the construction of newly acquired factories and production lines and the increase of interest expenses; The R & D expense rate was 2.17%, with a year-on-year increase of + 1.05 PCT, mainly due to the investment in energy conservation, environmental protection, process improvement and other projects. The R & D expense in the fourth quarter was nearly 170 million, with a significant increase in the same quarter. The asset liability ratio increased to 40.29% at the end of the period, compared with 36.62% in the previous year; Short term borrowings are 1.879 billion (+ 635 million) and long-term borrowings are 473 million (+ 259 million).
2022q1: the rates of sales / management / R & D / financial expenses were 1.99%, 9.89%, 0.29% and 0.94% respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 0.52, -0.13, + 0.18 and + 1.09pct. The improvement of investment income and fair value is related to financial management and secondary stock investment.
(4) tips: after the “dilemma reversal” in East China, the company may benefit directly
The epidemic is just a “pause key”, and the post epidemic demand is expected to be superimposed and released. Recently, the 11th meeting of the central financial and Economic Commission mentioned that we should comprehensively strengthen infrastructure construction and build a modern infrastructure system to lay a solid foundation for building a modern socialist country in an all-round way. We continue to be optimistic about the main line of steady growth, accelerating the landing of infrastructure projects + relaxing the edge of real estate, repairing cement after the epidemic in the first half of the year + speeding up construction in the second half of the year, and the “dilemma reversal” [ Gansu Shangfeng Cement Co.Ltd(000672) ] or direct benefit in East China. Considering the impact of the epidemic in the first half of the year, we lowered the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2023 to 2.58 billion yuan and 2.929 billion yuan. On April 26, the corresponding dynamic PE of the stock price was 6x and 5x, maintaining the “recommended” rating.
Risk warning: the weather change is less than expected; The funds in place are less than expected; Epidemic impact
