\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 389 Aerospace Ch Uav Co.Ltd(002389) )
Event: the company released the first quarterly report of 2022 on April 26: in the first quarter of 2022, the company achieved a revenue of 724 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 46.08%, a net profit attributable to the parent company of 35 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 82.34%, and a net profit deducted from non attributable to the parent company of 13 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 30.87%.
UAV products are in large volume, and the revenue is growing rapidly. On the revenue side, the company achieved a revenue of 724 million yuan in 2022q1, with a year-on-year increase of 46.08%. Thanks to the release of downstream demand for UAV products, the company's revenue achieved rapid growth. On the profit side, the company realized a net profit attributable to the parent company of 35 million yuan in 2022q1, a year-on-year increase of 82.34%, and deducted a net profit not attributable to the parent company of 13 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 30.87%. The substantial increase in net profit attributable to the parent company was mainly due to the confirmed income of 299816 million yuan of Hefei microcrystalline, a joint-stock company publicly listed and transferred in 2021. The decline in net profit after deduction of non parent company is mainly due to the large volume of UAV products and the decline of the company's profit margin. At the level of profit margin, the gross profit margin of the company in 2022q1 was 17.55%, down 7.63pct year-on-year. The gross profit margin of the company's UAV products in 2021 was 17.85%. The sales of UAV products increased greatly, resulting in a sharp decline of the company. In the long run, on the one hand, the production of UAV products has a certain scale effect, and the future profit is expected to be repaired; On the other hand, with the increase of UAV products delivered by the company, the supporting UAV training, maintenance and other services will increase significantly in the future. The gross profit margin of the company's technical services in 2021 is 50.87%. The large volume of technical services business is expected to drive the improvement of the company's profitability.
The proportion of three fees continued to decline, and the operation and management were good. The company's 2022q1 three expenses accounted for 9.72% (year-on-year -2.14pct), of which the sales expense rate, management expense rate and financial expense rate were 1.38% (year-on-year -0.30pct), 8.38% (year-on-year -2.15pct) and -0.03% (year-on-year + 0.30pct). The company's expense rate was well controlled, indicating that the company's operation and management level was high. In 2022q1, the company's R & D expenditure reached 18 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 24.73%, and the R & D expenditure rate was 2.54%, a year-on-year decrease of 2.39 PCT. The company's contractual liabilities at the end of 2022q1 were 15 million yuan, an increase of 44.42% compared with the beginning of the period, and the company's orders on hand continued to grow. The accounts receivable at the end of 2022q1 was 2.183 billion yuan, an increase of 14.78% compared with the beginning of the period, which was significantly lower than the growth rate of revenue, indicating that the company received good payment. The inventory at the end of 2022q1 was 864 million yuan, an increase of 16.21% compared with the beginning of the period, which was also significantly lower than the growth rate of revenue, indicating that the company's product delivery was smooth.
"Aircraft bomb" is also the leader of UAV, and the contract amount of Chinese models has reached a record high. The company is the first unit in China to have the scientific research and production qualification and ability of UAV and UAV airborne missile. It has the core advantage of "aircraft missile integration". The company has a UAV product system combining "high, medium and low" air and connecting "long, medium and short" range. At the same time, it has a series of UAV Intelligent Airborne Missile products. In 2021, the company achieved batch renewal of UAVs in China, and the model signing amount reached a record high. The newly signed orders are expected to significantly increase the company's performance in 2022. At the level of UAV business planning, the company plans the industrial layout of "research, trial, production and use" coordinated development in Beijing, Tianjin and Taizhou, establishes flight cooperation relations with more than 20 Military / civilian airports in Ningxia, Gansu, Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, Hebei, Guangdong, Hainan and other provinces, improves the industrial scale and creates a long UAV industrial chain.
Investment suggestion: at this stage, the gross profit margin of China's UAV products is lower than expected. We lower the company's profit forecast. It is estimated that the company's revenue from 2022 to 2024 will be 4.547/73.938847 billion yuan respectively (the previous value is 4.881/77.849269 billion yuan), the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 3.46/5.76/796 million yuan respectively (the previous value is 4.76/7.67/937 million yuan), the corresponding EPS will be 0.35 yuan, 0.58 yuan and 0.80 yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE will be 36.3x, 21.8x and 15.8x respectively. Military trade business is expected to recover, China's UAV train loading speed up, the company's fundamentals are expected to improve significantly, and maintain the "buy" rating.
Risk prompt event: military orders are less than expected; Military trade orders are less than expected; The profit forecast is lower than expected.
