\u3000\u30 Beijing Zznode Technologies Co.Ltd(003007) 15 Jiangsu Canlon Building Materials Co.Ltd(300715) )
Core view
Weak external demand, pressure on revenue, rising raw material prices and bad debt losses impact profits. The annual income of the company in 21 years / 21q4 / 22q1 was 2.59/6.6/330 billion, yoy + 28.8 / - 6.4 / - 26.9%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 0.7 / - 1.1/0.1 billion, yoy-74.2 / - 199.9 / - 84.1%. The revenue and profit of 21q4 and 22q1 both fell sharply. For the whole year of 21 / 21q4 / 22q1, the gross profit margin is 30.3 / 29.1 / 20.5%, yoy-12.9 / - 13.9 / - 12.3pct. The main reason for the decline in gross profit margin was 1.5% Freight reclassified as production cost, 2 Due to the increase in the price of raw materials such as asphalt. The cost rate is 18.2 / 17.7 / 20.7%, yoy-5.7 / - 7.3 / + 4.3pct. Excluding freight reclassification in 21 years, the cost rate is 21.2%, yoy-2.8pct. In the whole year of 21 years / 21q4, the credit impairment accrued was 250 / 200 million, yoy + 274.7 / + 1655.2%. The sharp increase of credit impairment caused by bad debt losses of some real estate enterprises is another main reason for the sharp decline of the company's performance in 21 years. In the whole year of 21 / 21q4 / 22q1, the operating cash flow was - 3.8 / 0.8 / - 210 million, yoy-244.7 / - 73.1 / + 14.6%. The sharp decline in operating cash flow was mainly due to the increase in purchasing expenses caused by the increase in raw material costs.
The sales volume of waterproof materials still increased, and the gross profit margin of various businesses decreased. In the 21st year, the company's revenue from waterproof coiled material / waterproof coating / construction / other items was 17.9/5.8/1.8/0.40 billion, yoy + 13.0/67.8/270.1/25.5%; The gross profit margin is 34.5 / 17.4 / 27.5 / 44.7%, yoy-10.2 / - 21.3 / - 4.1 / + 9.3pct, and the increase of raw material cost is reflected in the gross profit margin of various businesses. The annual sales volume of waterproof materials is 130 million square meters, yoy + 33.3%; Unit price: 18.1 yuan / square meter, yoy-7.9%; Single flat gross profit is 5.5 yuan, yoy-36.0%. With the continuous improvement of the company's production capacity, the sales volume of waterproof materials still increased, but the weak external demand and the increase of raw material cost led to a sharp decline in unit gross profit.
Under the epidemic situation, the regulation policy is expected to ease, and the enterprise valuation is expected to be repaired. At present, the capital of the real estate industry is tightening, and the land acquisition and new construction data of 22q1 real estate enterprises have fallen sharply. Although the demand for infrastructure investment has warmed up, the overall demand is still weak. We believe that under the influence of the epidemic, the pace of demand recovery has been interrupted, the downward pressure on the economy has increased, steady growth may need further policy support, the capital level of real estate chain enterprises may be improved, and enterprises are expected to usher in valuation repair opportunities.
With the launch of integrated photovoltaic roof system, the polymer strategy has been solidly promoted. The actual controllers and senior executives of the company promise to bear the arrears that Evergrande and its member enterprises still cannot recover in 22 years, and have fully accrued impairment. Some impairment is expected to be offset by existing houses in 22 years, and the risk in 22 years is controllable. In the 21st year, the company launched the integrated photovoltaic roof system matching the 25 year life cycle of photovoltaic, and promoted the cross-border integration of photovoltaic building waterproof with the positioning of distributed photovoltaic industry chain system service provider. With the mandatory implementation of the general code for building energy conservation and renewable energy, the construction demand of BIPV will be significantly increased. The company has sufficient technical reserves and has the first mover advantage, which will benefit first. The company has strengthened research and development, adhered to the polymer core strategy, promoted the application scenario of polymer materials, and imported TPO and PVC waterproof coiled material production lines have entered production; Take the lead in realizing class G and GL polymer waterproof materials, with excellent product performance, and the leading advantage of polymer materials is further established.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions
Considering the decline in real estate demand and the sharp increase in raw material pressure, we lowered our profit forecast and expected the company's EPS in 22-24 years to be 0.66/0.94/1.22 yuan / share (originally predicted EPS in 22-23 years to be 1.60/2.34 yuan / share). Referring to the average 20x PE of comparable companies, we recognized the company's 20x PE in 22 years, with a target price of 13.20 yuan, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tips
Risks related to cash flow, uncertainty of capacity expansion, sharp decline in downstream demand, and bad debt risk caused by large scale of accounts receivable
