\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 568 Shanghai Bairun Investment Holding Group Co.Ltd(002568) )
Core view
It grew steadily in 21 years, and the disturbance performance of 22q1 epidemic was under pressure. The company released the financial reports for 21 years and 22q1, with a revenue of 2.59 billion yuan (YoY + 34.7%) and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 670 million yuan (YoY + 24.4%), increasing steadily; The revenue of 22q1 was 540 million yuan (YoY + 4.1%), and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 90 million yuan (yoy-29.9%), which was less than expected due to the impact of the epidemic.
The pre blending business grew steadily, and the growth rate in 22 years is expected to improve quarter by quarter. 21. The revenue of pre blending business was 2.29 billion yuan (YoY + 33.5%), with a steady growth. According to channel estimation, the offline retail revenue of pre mixed liquor in 21 years was 1.54 billion yuan (YoY + 21.5%), accounting for 67.4% (yoy-6.7 PCT); The digital retail revenue is 650 million yuan (YoY + 70.3%), with a rapid growth momentum, accounting for 28.4% (YoY + 6.1pct); The revenue from ready to drink channels was 97 million yuan (YoY + 52.4%). The revenue of essence business was 270Million yuan (yoy+37.7%), contributing steadily to the increment. By region, in 21 years, North China, East China, South China and West China achieved revenue of RMB 320 million, RMB 1.23 billion, RMB 590 million and RMB 410 million respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 31.0%, 47.1%, 20.3% and 23.0%. The growth rate in East China is high, and the rest of the country goes hand in hand. 22q1, the revenue increased by 4.1%, lower than expected, mainly because: 1) the epidemic situation in many places has an adverse impact on production and sales; 2) The disturbance of the company's price increase to the channel purchase at the end of last year; As the marginal impact of the epidemic weakens, the price increase is gradually completed, and the business is expected to resume a high growth rate.
The gross profit margin of pre mixed liquor increased steadily in 21 years, and the profitability of 22q1 fluctuated in the short term. In the 21st year, the gross profit margin of the company was 65.4% (yoy-0.1pct), of which the gross profit margin of pre mixed liquor was 65.9% (YoY + 0.5pct); The sales expense ratio is 21.9% (yoy-0.4pct), the management expense ratio is 5.3% (YoY + 0.03pct), and taxes and surcharges account for 5.6% (YoY + 0.4pct). Overall, the net profit margin of sales in the 21st year was 25.6% (yoy-2.2pct), slightly lower than the same period last year. The gross profit margin of 22q1 is 62.5% (yoy-4.8%), which is expected to be mainly due to the rise of raw material costs and logistics costs caused by the epidemic; The company's new equity incentive expenses led to a year-on-year increase of 2.2pct in the rate of management expenses; Overall, the net interest rate of 22q1 is 17.0% (yoy-8.3pct).
Wait for the demand to warm up and be optimistic about the long-term growth space. Marginally, affected by the epidemic in many places, the company's raw material supply, product production and transportation are greatly affected, and the short-term performance is under pressure. On the other hand, since 21q4, the channel inventory has been gradually removed, superimposed with 22q1 logistics constraints, and the demand for channel inventory replenishment has accumulated. If the epidemic situation improves and the demand of channel end and consumer end is released together, the performance growth rate is expected to rebound. The company's equity incentive set a 22-year revenue growth target of 25%, which is still expected to be achieved. In the long term, China's pre blending industry is in the ascendant. On the basis of slight intoxication, the company has increased the promotion of refreshing series and other products, and gradually penetrated into catering channels. As a leader in the industry, it is optimistic about the growth space of the company.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions
Reduce the revenue and gross profit margin and increase the expense rate. It is predicted that the earnings per share in 22-24 years will be 1.07 yuan, 1.35 yuan and 1.64 yuan respectively (the original forecast of 22-23 years is 1.42 yuan and 1.87 yuan). Combined with the valuation of comparable companies, 33 times PE in 22 years is given, corresponding to the target price of 35.31 yuan, and the overweight rating is maintained.
Risk tip: the marketing promotion is not as expected, the cost increases significantly, and the cost of raw materials increases significantly.
