\u3000\u30003 Gold Cup Electric Apparatus Co.Ltd(002533) 00253)
Event: the company released its 2021 annual report, with revenue of 2.75 billion (+ 21.3%), net profit attributable to parent company of 378 million (- 23%), deduction of non net profit of 212 million (- 43.2%), and operating cash flow of 368 million (- 5.7%). According to the financial report of 22q1, the income of 22q1 was 446 million (+ 29.3%), the net profit attributable to the parent company was 31.76 million yuan (+ 121.7%), the net profit deducted increased by 38.4 times to 30.57 million yuan, and the operating net cash flow decreased from - 198 million yuan in the same period last year to - 98.68 million yuan.
Multiple factors led to the company's poor performance in 2021. The company's unsatisfactory performance in 2021 is mainly due to three reasons: 1) the slow growth of core business, the year-on-year growth of medical and health IT business, of which the revenue of software and technical services increased by 12.6% year-on-year, mainly due to the decline of newly signed contracts in 20 years affected by the epidemic, resulting in the impact of project implementation and confirmation in 21 years; 2) The losses of credit impairment and asset impairment increased significantly, with a total impairment of 140 million yuan in 20 years and 250 million yuan in 21 years; 3) The gross profit margin decreased, the gross profit margin of software and technical services decreased by 3.6pct, and the gross profit margin of hardware business decreased by 1PCT. Although the income of internet medical business increased by 191.6% year-on-year under the influence of consolidated key technology, the gross profit margin decreased from 39% to 9.8%.
22q1's revenue, payment collection and orders are ideal. Since the beginning of this year, various business indicators have improved. Q1 revenue has increased by nearly 30% year-on-year, of which the revenue from software and technical services has increased by 41.3% year-on-year; The year-on-year growth rate of newly signed contracts exceeded 35%, and the number of super ten million projects increased from 2 to 15, indicating strong downstream demand this year; The cash received from selling goods and providing labor services increased by 37% year-on-year, higher than the growth rate of income; The accrued asset impairment and credit impairment losses were also reversed by 11.71 million yuan. On the one hand, the contract amount increased by more than 25% year-on-year in 21 years. On the other hand, the delayed confirmation and payment caused by 21q4 epidemic and other factors were implemented in 22q1.
The worst time may have passed, and we look forward to the accelerated promotion of venex products. The company's poor performance in the past 21 years is related to the impact of the epidemic on demand and delivery on the one hand, and the promotion of new products on the other hand. By the end of the 21st century, venex had been implemented in 220 hospitals in 25 provinces across the country. Among the tens of millions of orders in 22q1, there were 6 venex projects, indicating that new products are gradually recognized by customers. In addition, the impact of the company's innovation business loss on the net profit attributable to the parent company in 21 years reached 92.85 million yuan. Considering that the charging rate of online diagnosis and treatment and medical services is still very low, with the normalization of epidemic prevention and control and the gradual clarity of policies, the company's innovation business loss is expected to improve.
Considering the possible impact of the epidemic, we lowered the company's performance forecast and estimated that the EPS of 22-24 years were 0.23/0.32/0.45 yuan respectively (the original forecast of 22-23 EPS was 0.42/0.61 yuan). According to the valuation level of comparable companies, the company is given 38 times PE in 22 years, corresponding to the target price of 8.74 yuan, maintaining the buy rating.
Risk tips
The landing of new products is less than the expected risk; Industry competition intensifies risks
