\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 519 Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) )
Event: Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) released the first quarterly report of 2022. The total revenue of 22q1 was 33.187 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 18.25%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 17.245 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 23.58%. The total revenue was consistent with the previous announcement, and the net profit was higher than the previously announced accounting data (it was expected that 16.6 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of about 19%).
22q1 started with a high increase, and the proportion of direct sales continued to increase. 1) The revenue of 22q1 reached the highest growth rate in a single quarter since 19q2. According to the previous announcement, the total revenue in the first two months was about 20.2 billion yuan, an increase of 20% year-on-year. In the peak season of the Spring Festival, the revenue in March was estimated to be 12.9 billion yuan, an increase of 15% year-on-year. In the off-season, the fast delivery rhythm was still maintained to ensure the smooth ending of Q1. 2) By product, the revenue of 22q1 Maotai Liquor / Series liquor was 28.860/3.428 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 17.35% / 29.71%. It is estimated that the increase mainly comes from the increase of direct marketing channels, the increase of non-standard Maotai quota and the contribution of new products such as treasures and Maotai 1935. The structure of series liquor was optimized, and the average price is estimated to rise to a certain extent. By channel, the revenue from 22q1 direct / wholesale channels was 10.887/21.401 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 127.88% / decrease of 4.72%, accounting for 33.72% / 66.28%. The company continued to actively control the investment in traditional wholesale channels, and the increment was mainly invested in direct channels. The proportion of 22q1 direct sales revenue increased by 16.18/4.08pct year-on-year / month on month. In addition to e-commerce and supermarkets, it can be seen that the company’s channel reform has achieved remarkable results, and the estimated ton price has also increased significantly under the structural adjustment. By the end of Q1 in 22 years, there were 2086 distributors in China, and there were 3 distributors of series liquor in Q1.
The growth rate of single quarter net interest rate and profit side reached a new high. 1) The gross profit margin of 22q1 was 92.37%, with a year-on-year increase of 0.69pct. It is estimated that it is mainly due to the structural optimization brought by the channel adjustment. The sales expense rate was 1.60%, with a year-on-year decrease of 0.42pct. The sales expense of Q1 decreased year-on-year, and the management and R & D expense rate was 6.49%, which was basically the same year-on-year. Thanks to the improvement of gross profit margin and cost control, the net profit margin of 22q1 was 55.59%, up 1.42pct year-on-year. The single quarter net profit margin reached a new high after 20q1 (56.80%), and the profit elasticity was significantly released. The net profit attributable to the parent company of 22q1 increased by nearly 24% year-on-year, reaching the highest single quarter increase since 19q2. 2) 22q1 cash receipts from sales reached 31.488 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 41.2%, which was significantly higher than the income side. The net cash flow from operating activities was -6.876 billion yuan (the same period of 21 years -1.485 billion yuan), mainly due to the decrease of funds absorbed by the holding subsidiary Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) Group Finance Co., Ltd. from other members of the group. The total contract liabilities and other current liabilities at the end of the first quarter of the year were about 9.261 billion yuan, a decrease of 4.994 billion yuan compared with the end of the year 21. It is estimated that it is mainly due to the traditional off-season of Q2.
Profit forecast, valuation and rating: Q1 performance once again verifies the growth certainty of Moutai. Q2 has entered the traditional off-season. Although there are epidemic disturbances in some markets, it is estimated that it will have little impact on the high-end Baijiu represented by Moutai. At present, the channel has basically completed the payment collection in April, most regions have arrived, the dealer inventory is also at a low level, and the possibility of accelerated growth is high throughout the year. At the same time, the company firmly promotes market-oriented reform, and the demand side uncertainty is more prominent in the current environment. The net profit forecast for 202224 is maintained at 61.8/72/82.7 billion yuan, equivalent to EPS of 49.2/57.3/65.8 yuan, and the corresponding P / E of the current stock price is 35 / 30 / 26 times, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tip: the demand for high-end Baijiu is weak, the channel reform is less than expected, and the performance of new products is less than expected.
