\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 519 Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) )
Core view
22q1’s profit growth rate was higher than the forecast, making a good start and outstanding performance. The company released the first quarterly report of 22 years. In 22q1, the operating revenue was 32.296 billion yuan (YoY + 18.4%), and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 17.245 billion yuan (YoY + 23.6%), and the profit growth rate was higher than the previous forecast value of about 19%.
The growth center of Maotai liquor has moved upward, and the direct sales channel has developed rapidly. Split products, the revenue of 22q1 Maotai liquor was 28.86 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.4%, and the growth center was significantly higher than that in 21 years; The revenue of series liquor is 3.43 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 29.7%. The growth rate of series liquor is high. It is expected to mainly benefit from the launch of new products such as Maotai 1935. By splitting channels, the direct sales revenue of 22q1 was 10.89 billion yuan, a significant increase of 127.9% year-on-year, and the proportion increased by 16.2pct to 33.7%. The direct sales channels grew rapidly. It is expected to benefit from a series of channel reform measures such as the launch of “I Maotai” e-commerce platform; The wholesale revenue was 21.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.7%. The company continued to promote the trend of expanding direct sales. At the end of 22q1, the number of dealers was 2190, with a decrease of 3 on a month on month basis, all of which were dealers of Maotai flavor series liquor; The revenue generated by a single dealer is 9.77 million yuan (yoy-6.5%), and the company’s quota for dealers is expected to shrink. 22at the end of Q1, the balance of contract liabilities of the company was 8.322 billion yuan, an increase of 2.981 billion yuan year-on-year; 22q1 received 31.488 billion yuan in cash from selling goods and providing labor services, with a year-on-year increase of 41.2%. The substantial increase in cash receipts will strongly support the growth of future performance.
The improvement of channel and product structure pushed up the gross profit margin and significantly improved the profitability. The gross profit margin of 22q1 is 92.37% (YoY + 0.69pct), which is expected to mainly benefit from the increase in the proportion of direct sales channels and non-standard Maotai, as well as the increase in the gross profit margin of Maotai 1935 and other products. 22q1 sales expense ratio is 1.64% (yoy-0.44pct), the scale of revenue is expanded, and the diluted expense ratio is reduced; The ratio of administrative expenses is 6.60% (YoY + 0.08pct), and taxes and surcharges account for 13.43% (yoy-0.61pct). Overall, the net profit margin of 22q1 sales reached 55.59% (YoY + 1.42pct), which increased significantly.
Feitian’s rating is stable month on month, and it is optimistic that the company will cross the economic cycle. On the margin, at present, the wholesale prices of Feitian Maotai full container and bulk bottle are about 2830 yuan and 2630 yuan respectively, which remains stable month on month. Affected by the epidemic and other factors, the macro-economy is under pressure in the short term, but the downstream demand for Maotai liquor remains strong, supporting the stable growth of the company’s performance. In terms of long-term cycle, according to our resumption of Baijiu cycle and referring to overseas liquor leaders, leading companies have the ability to cross the economic cycle and have high certainty of long-term growth. The general trend of consumption upgrading of Chinese Baijiu remains unchanged. We are firmly optimistic about the future growth space of the company. Under the current valuation level, it is recommended to pay attention to the long-term allocation value of the company.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions
Raise the income and gross profit margin and reduce the expense rate. It is predicted that the earnings per share of the company in 22-24 years will be 50.49 yuan, 58.48 yuan and 66.68 yuan respectively (the original forecast for 22-24 years is 49.95 yuan, 57.53 yuan and 65.35 yuan). Maintain the 45 times PE valuation of the previous report in 22 years, corresponding to the target price of 227205 yuan, and maintain the buy rating.
Risk tip: the risk of insufficient production capacity of base liquor, the risk of increasing social inventory and the risk of environmental deterioration.
