\u3000\u30 Xuchang Ketop Testing Research Institute Co.Ltd(003008) 21 Shandong Dongyue Organosilicon Materials Co.Ltd(300821) )
Silicone industry leader, layout upstream, further improve the industrial chain. The company has a production capacity of Shanghai Pudong Development Bank Co.Ltd(600000) T / a of silicone monomer (about 282000 T / a of polysiloxane), ranking among the top five in the world, and China accounts for 13%. At present, it has the integration ability from metal silicon powder processing to organic monomers, intermediates and downstream silicone rubber, silicone oil, vapor phase silica and other deep-processing products, forming a relatively complete industrial chain. In the future, it will actively promote the trial production of 200000 t / a deep processing device for downstream silicone products. The company starts to lay out upstream raw materials. After the completion of all planned construction capacity, it will have a supply of 330000 tons / year of industrial silicon raw materials, which can ensure the demand of Shanghai Pudong Development Bank Co.Ltd(600000) tons of silicone monomer.
Overseas capacity contraction & Chinese silicone head enterprises expanded orderly and the supply pattern was optimized. Overseas silicone monomer production capacity will further shrink, and the proportion of global production capacity will continue to decrease. China has million tons of capacity under construction + planned, which is concentrated in leading enterprises. It is expected that the capacity of silicone methyl monomer in China will exceed 6 million tons / year in 2025, accounting for more than 70% of the global capacity of silicone methyl monomer. Although there are many new capacity plans in China, we believe that enterprises will comprehensively consider and plan according to market supply and demand factors, and the probability of centralized delivery of new capacity is relatively low. The new production capacity will increase the supply of core raw material intermediates of the head company, improve the cost advantage, and further consolidate and enhance the market share and industry position.
Silicone demand still has great potential, and the consumption growth rate is expected to be 10.9% in the next five years. The largest proportion of silicone consumption in China is in the fields of construction, electronics and appliances, electric power and new energy, medical treatment and personal care. In the next five years, in addition to the continuous growth in the demand for silicone materials in traditional industries, the development of energy-saving and environmental protection industries such as photovoltaic and new energy, ultra-high voltage and ultra-high voltage power grid construction, intelligent wearable materials, 3D printing and 5g provide new demand growth points for silicone. It is estimated that China's polysiloxane consumption will be about 2.932 million tons in 2025, with an average annual consumption growth rate of 10.9% from 2021 to 2025.
The company has significant scale, cost and R & D advantages, and fully benefits from the upward boom of the industry. The company has mastered the design and operation technology of 150000 T / a monomer synthesis unit. It is one of the domestic units with the highest single production capacity, and its production capacity ranks the leading level in China. With the continuous improvement of production capacity, fuel power, direct labor and other costs will remain unchanged or decline. While upgrading existing products and expanding the scope of product application, further strengthen the development of new products, including high-end product research and development in the fields of national defense, military industry, medicine, electronics and so on. The R & D investment is comparable to that of the new material company, highlighting the growth attribute of the company. Strong R & D reserves help the company continuously put all kinds of new products into production, and the profitability will continue to be strengthened with the enrichment of new products in the future.
Investment suggestion: first coverage, buy rating. According to assumptions, we predict that the company's revenue from 2022 to 2024 will be 7.239 billion yuan, 8.474 billion yuan and 8.58 billion yuan respectively, and the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 2.277 billion yuan, 2.55 billion yuan and 2.581 billion yuan respectively, corresponding to EPS of 1.9 yuan, 2.12 yuan and 2.15 yuan respectively, and PE of 6.38 times, 5.69 times and 5.62 times respectively.
Risk warning: the production of projects under construction is less than expected, and the price of chemicals falls.
