\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 519 Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) )
Event: the company announced that in 2022q1, the operating revenue reached 32.296 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 18.43%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 17.245 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 23.58%; Net profit deducted from non parent company was 17.243 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 23.43%. It exceeded the expectations of the previous performance express. The company’s net profit in a single quarter hit another record high after the fourth quarter of 2021.
Double digit growth in revenue and a significant increase in the proportion of direct sales. In terms of product structure, the revenue of Maotai liquor in the first quarter was 28.86 billion yuan, an increase of 17.4%, the revenue of series liquor was 3.43 billion yuan, an increase of 29.7%, and the revenue growth of Maotai liquor was stable. In terms of channels, the channel revenue of dealers was 21.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.7%, and that of direct channels was 10.89 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 127.9%, accounting for a significant increase of 16.2pcts to 33.7%. In terms of cash flow, the sales collection in 2022q1 was 31.49 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 41.2%, significantly higher than the growth rate of revenue. The decrease in net cash flow from operating activities was mainly due to the decrease in funds absorbed by the subsidiary Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) Group Finance Co., Ltd. from other members of the group and the change in the rhythm of payment this year.
Profitability continues to improve. In 2022q1, the gross profit margin was 92.37%, the sales expense ratio was 1.64%, with a year-on-year increase of -0.44pcts, the lowest level in recent five years, and the management expense ratio increased slightly by 0.1pcts to 6.67%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 17.245 billion yuan, and the net interest rate attributable to the parent company was 51.96%, with a year-on-year increase of + 2.24pct. The net interest rate attributable to the parent company reached a new high in recent five years.
Investment suggestion: the e-commerce app “I Maotai” went online on March 31. On the first day, more than 2.29 million people and 6.22 million people participated in reservation subscription; From March 31 to April 18, more than 497345 million people and 131 million people participated in the subscription. The e-commerce platform provides a good support for performance growth and is expected to continue the good growth momentum in the future. Continue to maintain the Buy-A rating. It is estimated that the company’s earnings per share from 2022 to 2024 will be 50.27/58.95/67.02 yuan, and the 12-month target price will be 2400 yuan, which is equivalent to the 41x P / E ratio in 2023.
Risk tip: policy and consumption tax risks, the risk that the control effect of Maotai channel does not meet the expectation, and the risk that the expectation of price increase fails
