Power investment energy ( Huolinhe Opencut Coal Industry Corporation Limited Of Inner Mongolia(002128) )
The coal and aluminum industry continued its high boom, and the Q1 performance of the company was fully released. Maintain "buy" rating
The company released quarterly report of RMB 9.671 billion, with a year-on-year operating revenue of RMB 2.327 billion; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.512 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 49.53%; The net profit attributable to the parent company after deducting non profits was 1.514 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 36.49%. Benefiting from the rising prices of coal and aluminum, the production and sales of the company's main businesses were stable, and the annual performance was fully released. We maintain the profit forecast for 20222024, and predict that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 20222024 will be RMB 5.99/63.3/6.45 billion, a year-on-year increase of + 68.1% / 5.8% / 1.8%; EPS is 3.11/3.30/3.35 yuan, corresponding to 4.1/3.9/3.8 times of the current share price PE. The future performance of the company's main coal and aluminum industry is expected to be released steadily, the installation of new energy has entered the accelerated layout stage, and is optimistic about the transformation and growth potential. Maintain the "buy" rating.
The price of coal and aluminum is running at a high level, and the profits of double main industries are increasing
Coal business: according to the announcement of the company, the basic price of 2022 long-term coordination will follow the level of December 2021, and the annual long-term coordination price adjustment mechanism will be changed to: adjust the basic price of the next month in the same proportion every month according to the month on month change rate of NCEI index (previously, it was mainly linked to the Bohai Rim thermal coal price index and Jinzhou Port Co.Ltd(600190) coal price index). According to the company's interactive platform information, the price in December 2021 increased by about 30% compared with the price at the beginning of 2021. According to the calculation of the new pricing mechanism, the average price of the company's long-term association in the first quarter increased by about 30.88% compared with the price at the beginning of 2021. Meanwhile, on April 22, the latest NCEI index was 770 yuan, which has remained unchanged since February 18, up 20 yuan compared with the end of 2021, supporting the high and stable operation of the company's coal price. The sales of the company's long-term coal association accounts for a relatively high proportion. With reference to the increase of the benchmark price of the long-term coal association from 535 yuan / ton to 675 yuan / ton, it will catalyze the full release of the company's performance. Electrolytic aluminum business: since the beginning of 2022, the price of electrolytic aluminum has strengthened significantly. In 2022, the average price of A00 aluminum of Changjiang nonferrous metals in Q1 was 22159 yuan / ton, a year-on-year increase of + 36.45% and a month on month increase of 10.4% over 2021q4. The company's electrolytic aluminum pricing mechanism is flexible and basically matches the average monthly spot price of the Yangtze River, fully benefiting from the high elasticity of aluminum price. On the cost side, since the company provides its own coal power and coal, it can effectively avoid the cost pressure caused by the rise of energy prices; At the same time, the decline in the price of alumina also eased the pressure on the cost of raw materials. Since the beginning of the year, the price of alumina has decreased by about 15.4% compared with 2021q4. Overall, the company's electrolytic aluminum business profits benefit at both ends of the price and cost or at the same time.
New energy installation projects continued to be launched, green power transformation accelerated, and opened a third growth curve
According to the company's announcement in March, the company plans to invest in three new energy projects with a total installed capacity of 1.5gw: Tongliao 1 million kW wind power transmission project, Shanghai Miao Shandong UHV transmission channel Alxa base 400MW wind power project, and Jinzhong Yuci 100MW roof distributed photovoltaic project. According to the previous announcement, the first two have been approved at the end of 2019. Up to now, about 1.55gw of new energy units have been connected to the grid, and the installed capacity of approved projects under construction is 2.35gw, and the planned projects to be approved are 2.08gw, totaling 5.98gw. Considering the short construction period of green power installation, the grid connected capacity is expected to increase intensively in 2022. Under the background of double carbon goal, it is the general trend for traditional energy enterprises to plan transformation. Backed by the state power investment group, a central enterprise leading in the installation of new energy, the company has a clear transformation direction, takes the lead in the layout of green power transformation, and has the advantage of first mover scale, which is expected to form the core competitiveness of high barriers in the medium and long term.
Risk tip: economic growth slows down; Coal and aluminum prices fell more than expected; The utilization rate of new energy units is lower than expected
