\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 965 China Automotive Engineering Research Institute Co.Ltd(601965) )
Side event: Title China Automotive Engineering Research Institute Co.Ltd(601965) released the 2021 annual report and 2022q1 quarterly report. In 2021, the revenue reached 3.84 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 12.2%; The attributable net profit was 690 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 23.9%. In 2022q1, the revenue was 560 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 33.2%; The attributable net profit was 130 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 9.9%.
Comments:
Revenue grew steadily, and innovative businesses such as new energy and intelligent Internet connection performed well. In 2021, the company’s revenue grew steadily, and the increment came from the rapid growth of technical services, rail transit and special vehicle parts, automobile gas system and key parts business (YoY was + 32.3%, + 28%, + 35.7% respectively). The special vehicle business was affected by adverse factors such as the five to six emission standards and the tightening of heavy truck household policy, resulting in a significant contraction of revenue (YoY was – 15.5%). In technical services, the traditional business income was 2.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 25.6%; Innovative businesses such as new energy and intelligent Internet connection performed well, with a revenue of 280 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 119.1%.
2021q4 deduction of non net profit + 5.6% year-on-year, a record high in a single quarter. In a single quarter, the revenue of 21q4 was 1.24 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 21.1%; The attributable net profit was 200 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 10.1%; Non net profit deducted was 170 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 5.6%, a record high in a single quarter. The performance of Q4 profit side is weaker than that of revenue side, mainly due to the decline of gross profit margin and the rise of sales expense rate and management expense rate (year-on-year, – 3PCT, + 1PCT and + 0.5pct respectively).
22q1 technical services continued to grow rapidly, and equipment manufacturing dragged down revenue performance. By business, Q1’s technical service revenue was 500 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 27.1%; The revenue of equipment manufacturing business was RMB 60 million, with a year-on-year increase of – 87%. First, the terminal demand of engineering vehicles shrank significantly. Second, the delivery and settlement progress of rail transit and special auto parts business was delayed due to the impact of relevant policies of key customer locations. Q1’s revenue fell sharply and the profit performance was relatively good, mainly due to the low profit contribution of the equipment manufacturing business with low gross profit margin, while the scale of technical service revenue with high gross profit margin increased rapidly, which increased the overall gross profit margin (year-on-year + 17pct). Subtitle the subject matter of automobile testing is scarce, and the innovative business has entered the performance cashing period. The company is the main supplier of automobile testing and evaluation and quality supervision and inspection technical services in China: 1) in the short term, the traditional business is expected to benefit from the development of passenger car business and the increase of market share, the innovative business such as new energy and intelligent Internet connection has entered the performance cashing period, and the income of technical services is expected to maintain high growth. 2) In the medium and long term, the company’s hydrogen energy and fuel cell business, the “data +” and “consulting + data” businesses of the data center, Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) and non-standard testing businesses such as intelligent equipment are expected to continue to be implemented.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions: we expect the company’s revenue from 2022 to 2024 to be 4.3 billion yuan, 4.94 billion yuan and 5.98 billion yuan respectively; The attributable net profit was 780 million yuan, 900 million yuan and 1.04 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year growth rate of 12.4%, 15.9% and 15.8% respectively, and the CAGR from 2022 to 2024 was 14.7%; From 2022 to 2024, EPS is 0.79 yuan, 0.91 yuan and 1.05 yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE is 15.1 times, 13 times and 11.2 times respectively. Considering the scarcity of the company, the growth potential of innovative business, the stability of dividends and the current valuation level, 20 times PE is given in 2022, and the target price is 15.72 yuan, which is raised to the “buy” rating.
Risk tip: the impact of the epidemic on the automotive industry exceeded expectations, competition intensified, and the gross profit margin of technical services decreased; The downward trend of equipment manufacturing business exceeded expectations; The progress of innovative business is less than expected.
