\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 754 Shanghai Jin Jiang International Hotels Co.Ltd(600754) )
Investment logic
The epidemic has accelerated the chain of industries, and the improvement trend of leading competition pattern is clear. The supply is cleared under the epidemic. It is estimated that if the demand for overnight volume returns to the 19-year level, the supply contraction will increase the OCC of the industry by 3PCT compared with 19 years. In addition, consumers’ safety demands and investors’ anti risk awareness will rise, which will accelerate the rise of the chain rate of the industry, and the leaders will benefit more in the process of recovery in the future. In the medium and long term, the positive scale effect of the industry is obvious. Asset light + medium and high-end + Chain + digitization will jointly promote the improvement of the head competition pattern.
China’s chain hotels have the first market share, obvious advantages of medium and high-end brands, clear store expansion planning and strong execution. In the past 21 years, the company’s revenue was 11.34 billion yuan / + 14.6%, with 10613 hotels and 1019000 guest rooms. According to yingdie consulting, the market share of China’s chain hotels is about 20%. It has 30 + brands and continues to optimize its product strength. Two of the top three brands in China are medium and high-end brands, and the growth rate of the same store is leading. Among them, the upgrading of Vienna is particularly successful. The idea of expanding stores is clear. At present, the proportion of franchisees and medium and high-end stores is the highest among the top three. In 21 years, the net number of stores opened is 1207, 223 and 345 higher than that of the first brigade and Huazhu, and the plan of opening stores has been exceeded for five consecutive years. At the end of 21, there are 5662 pipeline stores, 2000 + higher than that of the first brigade and Huazhu. It is estimated that there are 1300 / 1500 / 1600 net stores in 22 ~ 24E and 15000 stores in 24E.
China has made positive integration, paid more attention to cost reduction and efficiency increase, and made a leap from horse racing enclosure to connotative development. In 20 years, Jinjiang China was established to break internal system barriers, streamline redundant personnel, and systematically support brand development with “one center and three platforms” in the middle and back office; In the past 22 years, CFO was promoted to concurrently serve as CEO, reflecting the importance of cost reduction and efficiency improvement. The management expense rate in the 21st year decreased by 6.5pct compared with that in the 19th year. The net interest rate of domestic hotel business deducted from non parent company is 4.2% / + 4.8pct. The cost and expense control is expected to be further improved in the future. In March 21, the company issued 110 million non-public shares and raised a net amount of 4.98 billion yuan, mainly for hotel decoration and upgrading and loan repayment,
Investment advice
Under the repeated h1h22 epidemic in China, the industry as a whole is under pressure, while Europe has recovered well and the travel intensity is significantly better than that in the previous two years. It is expected that the overseas income of 22e will increase by 68.2% at the same time, accounting for 29.9%, which is the main support for the performance of this year. It is expected that with the improvement of the domestic epidemic situation and more accurate prevention and control, the demand for 2h22 will gradually recover, and 23 ~ 24E will be significantly repaired at home and abroad. As a leader, the company will benefit more. In addition, with asset light and management optimization, the company is affected or further weakened by the industry cycle, and the profit stability is significantly improved. It is estimated that the company’s 22 ~ 24 eeps is 0.52/1.57/2.38 yuan, and 19 ~ 24 ecagr15 8%, giving the company 22epe38x, corresponding to the target price of 59.71 yuan, and giving a “buy” rating for the first time.
Risk tips
The global epidemic is repeated, the speed of store expansion is lower than expected, the progress of reform is lower than expected, and the exchange rate fluctuates sharply.
