\u3000\u3 Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) 027 Qianhe Condiment And Food Co.Ltd(603027) )
Event: Qianhe Condiment And Food Co.Ltd(603027) released the annual report of 2021 and the first quarterly report of 2022. In 2021, it achieved a revenue of 1.93 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.7%, a net profit attributable to the parent company of 220 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.6%, and a revenue of 570 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.0%, a net profit attributable to the parent company of 90 million yuan, a year-on-year turnaround; In 2022q1, the revenue was 480 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 0.9%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 60 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 38.5%.
The Spring Festival disturbed the apparent growth rate of 2022q1. 1) By product, the revenue of soy sauce / vinegar was + 18.0% / + 35.0% year-on-year in 2021q4, and - 1.3% / + 2.6% year-on-year in 2022q1. The high growth rate before and low growth rate after 2021q4-2022q1 was mainly due to the dislocation of the Spring Festival. According to the combination of the two quarters, the revenue of soy sauce / vinegar was + 8.3% / + 17.7% year-on-year, and the overall revenue was + 10.9% year-on-year, which was in line with expectations; 2) By channel, the distribution / direct sales revenue is + 18.9% / + 25.6% year-on-year in 2021q4 and + 3.0% / - 0.7% year-on-year in 2022q1; 3) By region, the revenue of West / East / North / central / South is + 15.2% / + 15.4% / + 12.7% / + 41.1% / + 313.2% in 2021q4 and + 1.0% / - 8.0% / + 15.7% / + 12.6% / - 3.1% in 2022q1.
The cost pressure appears, and the contraction of advertising contributes to the profit elasticity. 2021q4 gross profit margin was 37.9%, year-on-year + 8.6pct, sales / management / R & D / financial expense rate was 12.7% / 3.5% / 3.4% / - 0.3%, year-on-year + 7.5 / - 0.2 / + 1.0 / - 0.3pct, gross profit margin and sales expense rate changed greatly, mainly due to the adjustment of transportation expenses in the same period of 2020, net profit margin was 15.7%, year-on-year + 19.6pct; In 2022q1, the gross profit margin was 35.0%, with a year-on-year increase of -8.4pct. Due to the rising soybean price and increased promotion, the gross profit margin pressure hit a new high in recent years. The sales / management / R & D / financial expense ratio was 15.1% / 3.3% / 2.6% / - 0.2%, with a year-on-year decrease of -10.6 / + 0.0 / - 0.4 / - 0.2pct. The advertising expenses contributed to the profit elasticity, with a net profit margin of 11.5%, with a year-on-year increase of + 3.1pct.
Intensive cultivation of channels + improvement of product matrix, and the process of nationalization is expected to speed up. 1) The development of circulation and catering channels is accelerated, and the nationalization process is expected to speed up in 2022. The company completed Ka layout with high-end zero addition as a breakthrough, but there is still a large gap in circulation and catering channels. The company has increased channel expansion since 2021q2, and the results are expected to be reflected in 2022; 2) Low end zero addition is expected to accelerate the volume. 2021h2 company has launched a number of cost-effective new products, such as zero addition and high fresh soy sauce, to accelerate the circulation of C-end and the penetration of b-end catering channels. It is expected to accelerate the volume in 2022; 3) In 2021, the promotion and advertising expenses are 230 million yuan, resulting in a significant increase in the sales expense rate. It is expected to optimize the cost distribution structure and enhance the cost-effectiveness ratio in 2022.
Investment advice. We adjusted the previous forecast according to the annual report and the first quarterly report, and introduced the profit forecast for 2024. It is estimated that the company's revenue from 2022 to 2024 will be 2.38/28.8/3.41 billion yuan (2.47/3.07 billion yuan before 20222023), a year-on-year increase of + 23.6% / + 21.1% / + 18.2%; The net profit attributable to the parent company is 340 / 4.4 / 530 million yuan (370 / 490 million yuan before 20222023), a year-on-year increase of + 54.5 / + 27.4% / + 21.4%. The current valuation corresponds to PE 42 / 33 / 27x from 20222024, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tip: the nationwide expansion is not as expected; The cost continues to rise; Industry competition intensifies.
