\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 383 Gemdale Corporation(600383) )
Event: on April 24, 2022, the company issued the annual performance announcement of 2021
The revenue increased by 18.2% year-on-year, and the profit margin hit the bottom due to the settlement of high prices. The company achieved a year-on-year growth of 1.82 billion yuan in operating revenue in 2021. As of the end of the reporting period, the company’s contractual liabilities and advances received amounted to 112.8 billion yuan, covering 1.3 times the current operating income. Profit: affected by the high price and price limit in 17-18 years, the gross profit margin of real estate sales business decreased by 13.9pct to 19.7% year-on-year, driving the overall gross profit margin of the company to decrease by 11.7pct to 21.4% year-on-year. In 2021, the company realized a net profit attributable to the parent company of 9.41 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9.5%. The net interest rate attributable to the parent company was 9.5%, a year-on-year decrease of 2.9pct, but an increase of 3.4pct compared with 2021q1-3. In addition, the company’s sales and management rate increased to 8.5% from 7.6% last year, and the net investment income was 7.18 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 87.9%.
The annual sales increased against the trend, flexibly adjusted the investment rhythm, and the investment sales ratio reached 45.7%. In 2021, the company achieved a full-scale contract amount of 286.17 billion, a year-on-year increase of 18.2%; The contracted area was 13.77 million m3, a year-on-year increase of 15.3%. The cumulative average sales price was 20819 yuan / flat, an increase of 2.5% year-on-year. Under the severe market environment last year, the company reasonably arranged the supply rhythm and realized the volume and price of sales throughout the year, exceeding the average level of mainstream real estate enterprises. In the second half of 2021, when the market fundamentals declined, the company flexibly adjusted the investment rhythm and took the land cautiously. No new projects were obtained from September to November, and the land acquisition was resumed in December. In 2021, the amount of full caliber land acquisition was 130.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.0%; 16.36 million cubic meters of land were taken for construction, with a slight year-on-year decrease of 1.3%, and the average floor price was 8001 yuan / square meter. The investment sales ratio of the amount caliber is 45.7%, which remains high; The equity ratio of the amount caliber was 40.0%, with a year-on-year decrease of 11.6pct. The first and second tier cities in the newly added soil storage account for 65%. At present, the total land storage and construction area of the company is 63.98 million m3, with an equity ratio of 45.7%.
Diversified businesses have developed rapidly and synergies have been strengthened. In 2021, the rental income of the company’s holding properties was 2.07 billion yuan, the rental rate of shopping centers in operation exceeded 90%, the rental rate of office buildings in mature period exceeded 95% at the end of the year, and the rental rate of mature long-term rental apartment projects remained stable at more than 94%. The annual revenue of Jindi intelligent service was 5.28 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 29.3%. The cumulative contract area was 330 million square meters, of which the external expansion area accounted for 71%. In 2021, the new external expansion area exceeded 70 million square meters. The company’s agent construction business layout exceeds 30 cities, manages nearly 90 projects, and the cumulative government public construction area exceeds 4 million square meters.
The company’s financial stability, low financing costs, is expected to smooth through the cycle. The company adheres to a sound financial strategy. In January 2022, the company issued 789 million ABS with a coupon rate of 4.24%. In February, the company issued 1.7 billion yuan of medium notes at an interest rate of 3.58%. By the end of 2021, the company’s comprehensive cost of interest bearing liabilities was 4.56%, a year-on-year decrease of 18bp, and the financing cost remained low in the industry. The three red line indicators remained at the green level, and the asset liability ratio excluding advance receipts was 67.6%; Net debt ratio 55.2%; The cash short debt ratio is 1.4.
Investment suggestion: Gemdale Corporation(600383) as an old leading real estate enterprise, in recent years, the investment has actively focused on the first and second tier core cities, the financial stability and the continuous reduction of financing cost are expected to establish advantages in the process of industry liquidation and ensure the stable growth of performance. Maintain the “buy” rating. We adjusted and predicted that the total revenue of the company in 2022, 2023 and 2024 will be 112.08 billion yuan, 125.73 billion yuan and 140.13 billion yuan respectively. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 10.204 billion yuan, 10.933 billion yuan and 11.814 billion yuan respectively, with growth rates of 8.4% / 7.1% / 8.1% respectively, EPS was 2.26/2.42/2.62 yuan / share, and the corresponding PE was 6.1/5.7/5.2x.
Risk tip: the decline of industry fundamentals exceeded expectations, the risk of rising land, raw materials and labor costs, and the epidemic repeatedly exceeded expectations.
