\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 461 Guangzhou Zhujiang Brewery Co.Ltd(002461) )
Key investment points
Event: the company released] the first quarterly report of 2022, realizing a revenue of 870 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.8%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 71 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.4%; The net profit deducted from non parent company was 59 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 1.3%.
The product structure has been continuously optimized, and the volume and price have increased in Q1. In terms of volume, the company achieved 235000 tons of beer sales in 22q1, with a year-on-year increase of 5.3%. In the same period, the growth rate of beer production in the industry was – 1.5%. The company’s performance was better than that of the industry. In terms of high-end, the upgrading trend of the company’s product structure continued, and the proportion of pure draft beer sales increased by 5.4pp to 49.1% year-on-year, of which 97 pure draft beer, the core single product, sold 38000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 50.4%; The canning rate maintained rapid growth, with a year-on-year increase of 3.6pp to 37.9%. The proportion of high value-added products continued to increase, driving the overall ton price of the company to rise by 7.2% to 3714 yuan / ton. As the company continues to promote the substitution of high-end products represented by Chunsheng for mid-range products such as zero degree, and the company gradually reduces the cost support such as discount, it is expected that the ton price will maintain a rapid growth in the future.
The upward pressure on raw materials continued, reducing costs and improving efficiency, and stabilizing profitability. The gross profit margin of 22q1 company was 40.4%, down 1.9pp year-on-year, of which the cost per ton was + 10.8% year-on-year to 2215 yuan / ton. The pressure on gross profit margin is mainly due to 1) the adjustment of accounting standards, and the transportation expenses are included in the production cost; 2) The prices of key raw materials of beer, such as barley and packaging materials, continued to rise. In terms of expense ratio, the sales expense ratio was 16.1%, with a year-on-year decrease of 1.8pp, mainly due to the reduction of expense investment in the current period; Internal management efficiency continued to be optimized, and the management expense rate decreased 1pp to 7.8% year-on-year. Under the continuous pressure on the cost side, the overall net interest rate of 22q1 of the company decreased and increased by 0.9pp to 8.7% year-on-year, and the net interest rate deducted from non parent decreased by 0.1pp to 6.8% year-on-year.
Structural upgrading has taken firm steps, and Guangdong has a broad market space. After the early cultivation of high-end since 17 years, the high-end transformation of the industry has entered the period of accelerated dividend release, and the mainstream price belt in Guangdong Province is gradually changing from 6 yuan to 8 yuan. Relying on the good consumer base and the first market share in Guangdong Province, the company still has broad space for structural upgrading. The company strengthened the reform of internal management, promoted the reform of manufacturer led in-depth distribution mode by “one district and one policy” in each region, and further improved the control of channels in the province. At present, the impact of the epidemic on Guangdong is gradually reduced. After entering the peak season, the channel stock mood is high, and the company’s product structure is upgraded smoothly. It is expected that the company’s performance will maintain stable growth in the future.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions. It is estimated that the EPS from 2022 to 2024 will be 0.31 yuan, 0.35 yuan and 0.40 yuan respectively, and the corresponding dynamic PE will be 24 times, 21 times and 18 times respectively, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tips: raw material price fluctuation risk, covid-19 epidemic repeated risk, high-end competition intensified risk.
