\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 143 Kingfa Sci.& Tech.Co.Ltd(600143) )
Core view
In 2021, the price of raw materials rose, the gross profit margin was under pressure, the performance fell, and the first quarter of 2022 improved month on month. In 2021, the annual revenue was 40.2 billion yuan (+ 14.7%), the net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.66 billion yuan (- 63.8%), and the net profit not attributable to the parent company was 1.54 billion yuan (- 65.4%), which was mainly due to the pressure on the gross profit margin due to the rise in the price of raw materials and the provision for impairment of the equity transfer of jin'ao factoring. The annual gross profit margin decreased by 9.2pp to 16.6%, and the provision for impairment of jin'ao factoring was 300 million yuan. In the fourth quarter, the single quarter revenue was 10.6 billion yuan (+ 19.7%), the net profit attributable to the parent company was - 70 million yuan (- 108.8%), and the net profit not attributable to the parent company was - 150 million yuan (- 122.7%). In the first quarter of 2022, the company's single quarter revenue was 9.46 billion yuan (+ 4.4%), the net profit attributable to the parent company was 420 million yuan (- 45.1%), and the net profit not attributable to the parent company was 400 million yuan (- 44.3%).
The company's modified plastics and new materials business is stable, and the business boom of medical and health care is declining. In 2021, the company sold 1.745 million tons of modified plastic products (+ 12.8%); The operating revenue was 25.33 billion yuan (+ 24.1%), of which the sales of vehicle / household appliances / electronic and electrical / environmental protection recycled materials were 61.8/37.0/16.9182000 tons respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 26.8% / 26.3% / 36.3% / 31.2% respectively; The sales volume of new materials was 102000 tons (+ 29.3%), of which the sales volume of biodegradable plastics / special plastics / carbon fiber and composite materials were 80000 / 1.804200 tons respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 22.3% / + 68.9% / + 40.0% respectively; The propylene sales volume of the green petrochemical sector was 621000 tons (- 35.0%), and the revenue of the sector was 4.01 billion yuan (- 16.3%) year-on-year. The company's annual gross profit margin of modified plastics / new materials / Green Petrochemical was 19.7% (- 6.5pp) / 33.9% (- 5.8pp) / 7.4% (- 7.2pp) respectively year-on-year, mainly due to the rise in the price of polyolefin, propane BDO and other raw materials. As the epidemic situation eased, the company's medical and health business declined, with an annual revenue of 1.53 billion yuan (- 43.7%) and a sharp decline in gross profit margin of 60.8pp to 15.3%.
Steady progress was made in the construction in progress, and the integrated layout of the industrial chain enhanced the ability to resist risks. Shanghai Pudong Development Bank Co.Ltd(600000) tons of ABS and supporting projects in the modified plastic sector are planned to be put into operation in 22q3, promote the construction of an integrated production line of environmental protection, regeneration, pretreatment and modification with an annual output of 109000 tons, and put in 50000 tons of production capacity in 2022; In the new material sector, the company added 15000 tons of pa10t / PA6T synthetic resin project, of which 4000 tons in phase I has been put into operation; Start the capacity construction projects of 6000 T / a LCP resin, 5000 t / a polyarylether sulfone resin and 30000 T / a blending modification; 30000 t PLA is planned to be put into operation in 22q2, and the construction of 120000 T / a PBAT and 60000 T / a PLA capacity will be promoted in due time; 10000 ton bio based BDO is planned to be completed by the end of the year 23; In the green petrochemical sector, the 1.2 million ton PTPE and modified new material integration project is expected to be put into operation in 23q2. The construction of 40 nitrile production lines has been completed and the follow-up operation of the medical gloves Market has been stable.
Risk tip: the price of raw materials has risen sharply; The downstream demand of the company's products is lower than expected.
Investment suggestion: lower the profit forecast and maintain the "buy" rating. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be 1.98/22.2/2.56 billion yuan (the original forecast of 3.86/4.2 billion yuan from 22 to 23 years), with a year-on-year growth rate of 19.2/11.9/15.7%; Diluted EPS = 0.77/0.86/1.00 yuan, and the current share price corresponds to PE = 19 / 9 / 8x. The company is the leader of modified plastics in China and maintains the "buy" rating.
