\u3000\u30 Zhongyan Technology Co.Ltd(003001) 96 Jiangsu Changhai Composite Materials Co.Ltd(300196) )
The company released the first quarterly report of 2022:
In 2022q1, the company achieved a revenue of 754 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 36.05%, a net profit attributable to the parent company of 228 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 115%, and a deduction of non net profit of 182 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 79.9%. The gross profit margin and net profit margin of sales were 38.81% and 30.23% respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 5.77 and + 11.11pct. The non recurring profit and loss of 46 million yuan is expected to be mainly the profit of rhodium powder. The average settlement price of 99.95% rhodium powder imported by Shanghai Huatong in 2022q1 is 4261 yuan / g, and that from 2018q1 to 2021q1 is 448, 715, 2644 and 5576 yuan / g respectively.
The volume and price of glass fiber and products increased year-on-year, and the main increment contributed by 100000 tons of new production capacity:
① in the industry, the roving price is stable month on month and increased year on year. The average price of 2400tex national winding direct yarn in Q1 is 6138 yuan / ton, year on year + 333 yuan / ton and month on month – 40 yuan / ton, which is basically stable. On the cost side, the cost of natural gas has increased greatly, and the increase of pyrophyllite is less than that of natural gas.
② the sales volume of Q1 roving + products increased year-on-year, and the increment came from the contribution of 100000 ton production line of convertible bond raised investment project.
③ we expect that the main reasons for the company’s price rise are: 1) the overseas sales of roving and products increase, and 2) the price rise after the implementation of newly signed orders for products.
High export boom and re cognition of the relationship between supply and demand:
On the demand side, it is estimated that the industry increment mainly comes from exports, new energy vehicles and wind power. The supply of glass fiber in Europe is subject to the rising energy prices. In 2022q1, China’s export of glass fiber and products is 545500 tons, with a year-on-year increase of + 49.7%, and the export amount is 952 million US dollars, with a year-on-year increase of + 49.6% (Zhuo Chuang information). The supply side continues to digest the newly invested capacity in the early stage. Under strict assumptions, the actual new capacity this year is still limited.
The expense rate decreased steadily during 22q1:
In 2022q1, the total expense rate of the company was 10.67%, with a year-on-year increase of -1.12pct. Among them, the rates of sales, management, R & D and financial expenses were 2.12%, 3.38%, 3.98% and 1.2% respectively, with a year-on-year increase of -2.05, -0.65, -0.03 and + 1.71pct respectively. The increase in financial expenses is mainly due to the increase in interest expenses of convertible bonds, with interest expenses of 5.76 million in 2022q1 and 140000, 70000, 40000 and 380000 in 2021q1-2021q4 respectively.
Investment suggestions:
Continue to pay attention to ① the layout of the whole glass fiber industry chain of the company, further improve the competitiveness and reduce the cost after the production capacity is put into operation, ② optimize the product structure, continuously promote the wind power yarn products, ③ progress in the approval of new projects, and ④ continuous export boom. We estimate that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be 735 million, 866 million and 1046 million. The corresponding PE of the share price on April 26 will be 7x, 6x and 5x respectively, maintaining the “recommended” rating.
Risk tips:
Macroeconomic downturn; The pace of industrial capacity launch is lower than expected; Fuel prices fluctuated sharply.
