\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 241 Goertek Inc(002241) )
Performance summary: the company released the first quarter report of 2022 and the performance forecast of the first half of the year. 1) 2022q1: the company achieved an operating revenue of about 20.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 43.4%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was about 900 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.7%; The non net profit deducted was about 880 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 46.1%. 2) 2022h1: the company is expected to realize a net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 2.08 – 2.42 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 20% – 40%; The non net profit deducted was 1.9-2.18 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 35% – 55%.
Oculus phenomenal products remain popular, and VR OEM business injects continuous growth momentum into the company. The company is the sole supplier of quest2. Quest2 has been sought after as a phenomenal VR product since its launch in September 2020, and its sales continue to exceed expectations. The market heat of quest2 is expected to continue in 2022. According to steam data, as of March 2022, oculus users accounted for 66% of VR users on the platform; Among them, quest2 won the title of market share for 14 months, accounting for 47.35%. In addition, after Pico was acquired by byte, the sales volume soared and significantly revised the 22-year sales target. The company’s OEM Pico, PSVR and quest new generation products are also planned to be launched. Therefore, the company’s VR business is expected to continue to grow at a high speed in 2022.
The game console business is about to accelerate and contribute important performance increment in the short term. The company provides s customers with OEM services for new products of Playstation series. PS series continues to take the lead in the game console market. The total sales volume of PS4 game consoles in the life cycle reaches 110 million, ranking first. In November 2020, once released, ps5 received unprecedented attention from the market and became the main product of the next generation of game console. According to vgchartz data, as of March 2022, the cumulative sales volume of ps5 exceeded 18.7 million units, which was lower than the previous market expectation due to the shortage of parts; In fy2022, with the alleviation of parts shortage and the increase of supply side, the sales volume is expected to increase significantly. The general life cycle of PS host is 6-7 years, of which the second to fourth year is the peak sales volume, and the corresponding 20222024 will be the peak sales volume of ps5. We believe that after 2022, the shipment of ps5 is expected to accelerate the growth. At the same time, with the increase of the company’s OEM share, the game console OEM business will become a new important growth driving force for the company in the short term.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be 5.88/79.0/9.72 billion yuan respectively, and the net profit attributable to the parent company will maintain a compound growth rate of more than 30% in the next three years. Considering that the company is currently the core OEM in the field of VR head display, VR head display has ushered in the accelerated volume period, and the game console manufactured by the company has entered the peak sales, we maintain the “buy” rating for the company.
Risk tip: the shipment volume of VR business is lower than expected; The downstream demand of OEM game console does not meet expectations; Trade frictions escalated.
