\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 318 Zhejiang Jiuli Hi-Tech Metals Co.Ltd(002318) )
Event overview: on April 25, the company released the 2021 annual report and the first quarterly report of 2022: in 2021, the company achieved a revenue of 5.974 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.6%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 794 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.9%; Net profit deducted from non parent company was 732 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 10.9%. In 2021q4, the company achieved a revenue of 1.481 billion yuan, an increase of 7.9% year-on-year and a decrease of 3.4% month on month; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 182 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 18.3% and a month on month decrease of 22.9%; Net profit deducted from non parent company was 152 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 15.2% and a month on month decrease of 33.1%. In 2022q1, the company achieved a revenue of 1.319 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.3% and a month on month decrease of 10.9%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 194 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 36.5% and a month on month increase of 6.7%; Net profit deducted from non parent company was 185 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 36.9% and a month on month increase of 21.2%.
Comments: the company’s output continues to increase and the gross profit margin fluctuates slightly
① output: the company’s output increased steadily in 2021. The company’s seamless pipe production in 2021 was 54900 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 7.49%; The sales volume was 55600 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 122600 tons; The company’s output of welded pipes in 2021 was 61500 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.44%; The sales volume was 62800 tons, a year-on-year increase of 5.89%.
② price: in 2021, the price of raw materials rose and the company’s gross profit margin fell. In 2021, the price of raw material stainless steel increased by 27%, the unit cost of seamless pipe and welded pipe increased by 16.6% and 4.5% respectively, while the price changed by 12.3% and – 8.5% respectively, the gross profit margin fell to 31.7% and 20.6%, and the overall gross profit margin of the company fell by 4.28pct to 24.93%. Q4 gross profit margin fell 4.5pct month on month, adding to the increase in R & D expenses, which dragged down Q4 performance.
③ in 2022q1, the net profit attributable to the parent company increased year-on-year. As the gross profit margin changes little and the sales are still under control despite the impact of the epidemic, the decline of the company’s gross profit is limited. The superimposed R & D expenses fell month on month in the first quarter, and the investment income increased by 28 million yuan due to the increase in the equity investment income of Yongxing Special Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002756) , which jointly supports the company’s Q1 performance.
Future core focus: new capacity projects are gradually put into operation, and the leading position of the company is stable
① R & D helps to expand production capacity, and the leading position of the company is stable. Through technological transformation and product structure adjustment, the company has become the largest industrial stainless steel pipe manufacturing enterprise in China. At present, it has an annual production capacity of 135000 tons of industrial stainless steel pipe, and has obvious leading position and scale advantages in the industry.
② new capacity projects are gradually put into operation to enhance the company’s core competitiveness. After the company’s convertible bond project “5500km / a precision pipe project” and “10 million tons of aerospace materials and products project” are put into operation, the company’s high-end stainless steel pipe production capacity will be improved, and the product structure is expected to be further optimized. In addition, “5000 tons of special alloy pipe prefabrication and pipe maintenance service project” and “15000 tons of special alloy welded pipe project for oil and gas transmission” will also help the company’s continuous expansion of production capacity and the release of the company’s performance can be expected.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions: with the gradual launch of production capacity, the company’s output is expected to continue to increase, and the product structure is expected to be further optimized. We expect the company to realize the net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.025 billion yuan, 1.255 billion yuan and 1.456 billion yuan from 2022 to 2024, with EPS of 105 yuan, 1.28 yuan and 1.49 yuan respectively. The PE corresponding to the closing price on April 26 is 13, 11 and 9 times respectively. It is covered for the first time and given a “recommended” rating.
Risk tip: the price of raw materials is rising, the downstream demand is lower than expected, and the covid-19 epidemic continues to affect.
