\u3000\u3 Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) 187 Qingdao Hiron Commercial Cold Chain Co.Ltd(603187) )
Matters:
The company disclosed the annual report of 2021 and the report of the first quarter of 2022. In 2021, the company realized a revenue of 2.662 billion yuan (year-on-year + 40.80%) and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 225 million yuan (year-on-year – 16.02%); Excluding the impact of share based payment caused by equity incentive, the company’s net profit deducted from non parent company in 2021 was RMB 258 million, with a year-on-year increase of 2.18%. The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 3 yuan (including tax) for every 10 shares. In the first quarter of 2022, the company realized an operating revenue of 840 million yuan (year-on-year + 47.83%) and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 78 million yuan (year-on-year + 24.76%).
Ping An View:
The four major products grew in an all-round way, and the smart cabinet performed brilliantly. In 2021, the company achieved revenue of 1.561 billion yuan (+ 29.61%), 671 million yuan (+ 62.19%), 218 million yuan (+ 32.32%) and 105 million yuan (+ 339.57%) respectively from commercial freezers, refrigerators, supermarkets display cabinets and commercial smart vending cabinets. The market share of the company’s commercial freezers continued to increase, and the revenue increased steadily; Commercial refrigerators have received a large number of orders from high-quality customers and their performance has increased rapidly; In the field of display cabinets of supermarkets, the company strengthened cooperation with chain brand convenience stores, supermarkets, fresh food and community supermarkets, and explored the sinking market to achieve rapid business growth; In the field of intelligent vending cabinets, the company cooperated smoothly with new retail operators and FMCG brands, and the product coverage areas and application scenarios gradually increased, realizing the leapfrog growth of business.
With the recovery of demand and the cancellation of tariffs, the company’s overseas exports are expected to improve. In 2021, the company’s domestic and overseas revenues were 2.093 billion yuan (+ 66.48%) and 463 million yuan (- 15.79%) respectively. Due to the continuous impact of covid-19 epidemic, the overseas demand was restrained to a certain extent in the past 21 years. In addition, the sea freight remained high, and the company’s export business decreased. With the improvement of overseas epidemic, the decline of freight and the cancellation of US tariffs, overseas consumer confidence is expected to be boosted and the company’s export business is expected to recover.
Affected by the price rise of raw materials, the company’s gross profit margin is under pressure in 21 years and is expected to improve in 22 years. In 2021, the company’s comprehensive gross profit margin was 20.75%, down 7.32 PCT from 2020, mainly due to the sharp rise in the price of raw materials. 1) The gross profit margin of commercial freezers and commercial supermarket display cabinets decreased due to the rise in the price of raw materials, which were 23.20% (year-on-year -9.82pct) and 18.93% (-13.65pct) respectively. Among them, the decline of commercial supermarket cabinets was higher due to the transfer of freight to cost. 2) The gross profit margin of commercial refrigerators was 15.94%, benefiting from the scale effect brought by the expansion of production capacity and the increase in the proportion of sales of high-end products, up 1PCT. 3) Due to the scale effect of capacity expansion, the gross profit margin of commercial intelligent sales cabinet has improved, reaching 15.69% (+ 4.94%). In 2022, with the decline of MDI, steel and other raw material prices and freight, the company’s gross profit margin is expected to be repaired. In the first quarter of 2022, the company’s comprehensive gross profit margin has rebounded to 22.10%.
Investment suggestion: in view of the impact of the rise in the price of raw materials on the company’s gross profit margin, we lowered the profit forecast. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 357 million yuan, 511 million yuan and 676 million yuan from 2022 to 2024 (the value before 20222023 is 423 million yuan and 579 million yuan respectively), and the corresponding P / E ratio will be 18 times, 13 times and 10 times respectively. As the leader of commercial display cabinets in China, the company’s business expansion is smooth, while the gross profit margin is expected to gradually improve and maintain the “recommended” rating.
Risk tips: 1) increased competition and less than expected risk of new product development. The market of the company’s commercial refrigerated display cabinet, commercial refrigerated display cabinet, commercial supermarket display cabinet, commercial intelligent sales cabinet and other products changes rapidly. If the industry competition intensifies or the company’s new product research and development is less than expected, it will face the risk of customer loss. 2) Raw material price fluctuation risk. The company’s raw materials include compressor, steel sector, isocyanate (MDI), combined polyether, etc. if the price of raw materials rises sharply, it will have a significant impact on the company’s gross profit margin. 3) Exchange rate fluctuation risk. Overseas revenue accounts for an important proportion of the company’s business, and exchange rate fluctuations will affect profits. 4) The global epidemic is at increased risk. If the global epidemic intensifies or the economic repair is less than expected, the company’s revenue growth may face certain pressure.
