\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 202 Xinjiang Goldwind Science And Technology Co.Ltd(002202) )
Key investment points
In 2022q1, the net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.265 billion yuan, with a yoy of + 30% / + 185%. Gross profit margin fell slightly year-on-year, in line with expectations. In 2022q1, the company achieved a revenue of 6.383 billion yuan, with a yoy of – 6.43% / – 62.5%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.265 billion yuan, with a month on month ratio of + 30.17% / + 184.91%. During the reporting period, the investment income from the transfer of equity of subsidiaries was 1.342 billion yuan, with a month on month ratio of + 131% / + 83%. The comprehensive gross profit margin was 26.51%, with a month on month ratio of -1.88pct / + 11.3pct; The net interest rate attributable to the parent company was 19.82%, with a month on month ratio of + 5.57pct / + 17.2pct. The year-on-year decline in gross profit margin is mainly due to the year-on-year decline in the price of wind turbine orders, the reduction of wind power utilization hours in high gross profit margin power generation business, and the significant increase in month on month is due to the high proportion of Q1 power generation business.
2022q1 fan sales increased by + 29.7% / – 67.5% on a month on month basis, with sufficient orders on hand, dominated by 3 / 4S, and MSPM increased rapidly: the company achieved 1.41gw fan sales in 2022q1, with a month on month basis of + 29.7% / – 67.5%. Among them, the sales of 2S model is 479mw, with a month on month ratio of – 18% / – 74%, accounting for 34%; The sales ratio of 3W / 4S platform is still the highest, accounting for 7860% of that of 3W / 0ms platform; MSPM models sold 152mw, accounting for + 39% month on month (MOM) after the first sale of 21q4, accounting for 11%. As of 2022q1, 16.97gw of wind turbines were in hand, including 16.5gw of external orders. In terms of models, the 3 / 4S model is about 8.45gw, accounting for an increase of 4.2pct to 51.2% at the same time; 2S model is about 2.58gw, accounting for 25.4pct to 15.6% of the same decline; MSPM models are about 5.45gw, accounting for an increase of 4pct to 33% compared with the end of 2021. In terms of regions, overseas orders on hand were 2.73gw, a year-on-year increase of + 37.7%, mainly distributed in Vietnam, Chile, Australia, Brazil, etc. overseas shipments in 2022 are expected to be 1.2gw.
The bidding heat is not reduced. 6MW or mainstream bidding models of onshore wind power: in 2022q1, China’s public bidding adds 24.7gw, an increase of 74%, including 19.3gw onshore and 5.4gw offshore. The annual bidding volume is expected to exceed 60GW. In December 2021, the average price of 3 / 4S model in public bidding rebounded to 2798 / 2359 yuan / kW. In March 2022, the average bidding price of wind turbines from wind turbine manufacturers in the whole market was 1876 yuan / kW, mainly because the mainstream bidding model was upgraded to 6MW in 2022, and the price of wind turbines decreased due to large MW. Judging from the recent bidding format, we will no longer blindly fight the price war. We expect the annual average price to remain 17002000 yuan / kW. The company has always adhered to the quality of fans. As the price stabilizes, the order volume is expected to further increase.
The self operated scale of wind farms grew steadily, while promoting the asset light operation mode: in 2022q1, the equity installed capacity of self operated wind farms of the company increased by 51.3mw, and the sales reached 232mw, with a total of 5.89gw; The equity capacity under construction is 2.55gw. It is estimated that the annual equity installed capacity is about 1.5gw and the sales capacity is about 1GW. The average utilization hours of self operated wind farms were 571H, up – 20% year-on-year, higher than the industry average of 16h.
The overall cost rate during the period is stable. Over the years, Q1 cost rate is the highest in the whole year. During 2022q1, the company’s expense rate increased from + 0.06pct to 19.53% year-on-year. The rates of sales, management (including R & D), R & D and financial expenses increased from + 0.77pct / + 1.38pct / + 1.01pct / – 2.09pct to 7.60% / 10.58% / 4.60% / 1.35% year-on-year respectively. Q1 is basically the high point of expense rate over the years. With the increase of income scale, it shows a decreasing trend quarter by quarter. The net outflow of operating cash flow was 3.747 billion, basically unchanged year-on-year.
Profit forecast and investment rating: we maintain the forecast of net profit attributable to parent company of RMB 3.607/4.036/4.591 billion in 2022 / 2023 / 2024, with a year-on-year increase of + 4.35% / 11.87% / 13.76%, EPS of RMB 0.85/0.96/1.09 and PE of 12.02/10.74/9.44 times respectively, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tips: price competition intensifies, raw material prices rise, demand is less than expected, etc.
