\u3000\u30 Zhongyan Technology Co.Ltd(003001) 25 Lingda Group Co.Ltd(300125) )
Actively optimize the business structure and fully enter the photovoltaic industry
The company was founded in 2005 and officially changed its name from “Eastar” to ” Lingda Group Co.Ltd(300125) ” in April 20. The company was originally mainly engaged in the research and development of waste heat power generation system and other new energy technology services. Based on the forward-looking judgment on the development trend of the industry, the company entered the photovoltaic industry through the acquisition of Golmud Shenguang new energy photovoltaic power station in 14 years, and acquired Jinzhai Jiayue New Energy Technology Co., Ltd. in 20 years. In July 21, the company completed 100% holding of Jiayue and successfully entered the production and manufacturing business of Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) cells. At present, more than 90% of the company’s operating revenue comes from high-efficiency crystalline silicon Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) battery business, and the main business has changed substantially. Jiayue new energy plans to build 10GW high-efficiency photovoltaic cell capacity, and 3gw high-efficiency perc crystalline silicon cell project has been completed and put into operation in phase I; Phase II plans to invest in the construction of 5GW 210 compatible 182topcon battery intelligent factory; Phase III 2gw will be planned according to the market situation and the actual development strategy of the company. The company’s phase II TOPCON project can be compatible with large-size battery and multi main grid technology, and the next generation battery technology route interface is reserved. After being put into operation, the total capacity of the two phases of the project can reach 8GW. Jiayue new energy is expected to break the capacity barrier, obtain scale effect, improve its competitiveness and market share, and stabilize its market position.
The global energy revolution has become an inevitable trend, and the photovoltaic industry is expected to accelerate its development
Large size products effectively reduce the cost of the whole industry chain and are expected to gradually replace small size products. According to pvinfolink data, the market share of large-size silicon wafers has reached 48% in 21 years, and has increased to more than 50% in the third quarter. The conversion speed to large-size demand is significantly accelerating. We expect that with the highlighting of the cost advantage of large-size in various production links, the replacement of large-size will accelerate. The mass production efficiency of p-type perc is close to the theoretical limit, and n-type battery is expected to lead the technological change. In 21 years, the average conversion efficiency of p-type perc battery in mass production in China has reached 23.1%, approaching the theoretical limit. Based on higher conversion efficiency, lower attenuation and lower lcoe potential, n-type battery shows its advantages. From the perspective of conversion efficiency, investment cost and production process feasibility, TOPCON technology is expected to take the lead in accelerating development.
Comply with the industrial development trend and quickly layout the Topcon technology path
The upgrading of the existing perc production line will be accelerated, and the new TOPCON production line will be launched soon. Based on the significant advantages of large-scale efficiency improvement and cost reduction, the company has successively upgraded eight 166mm production lines in the original production capacity, and is expected to fully replace them to large-scale production lines in the second quarter of 22. The company’s phase II project will adopt more advanced TOPCON technology. It is expected that the mass production conversion efficiency and yield will reach 24% and 97.5% respectively, forming an efficient and modern production capacity, so as to provide technical guarantee for the company to continuously improve its product competitive advantage. The company has established a good and stable customer structure, including China energy conservation, Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) , Jingao and other well-known photovoltaic enterprises in China. As of August 2021, the company has executed 8 million orders for battery chips and signed a total of 211 million framework contracts, with full orders on hand.
Investment advice
With the rapid growth of downstream market demand and the supply and demand of upstream raw materials, the company is expected to achieve the increase of volume price by virtue of its own advanced capacity and abundant orders, and the profitability will be significantly restored. We expect the company’s revenue to be 2.18/6.8/8.08 billion yuan and net profit to be 1.1/3.3/460 billion yuan in the year of 22 / 23 / 24. Considering the company’s rapid layout of new battery technology capacity and the gradual extension of the industrial chain, we will give the company a valuation of 25 times in 23 years, corresponding to the target price of 31.5 yuan / share, and give a “buy” rating for the first time.
Risk warning: intensified epidemic / market competition / technology upgrading / the project is less than the expected risk.
