\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 831 Shenzhen Yuto Packaging Technology Co.Ltd(002831) )
Event: the company announced in the annual report of 2021 that the operating revenue in 2021 was 14.85 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 25.97%, and the net profit attributable to the parent was 1.017 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 9.19%. The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 2.20 yuan (including tax) for every 10 shares. It was announced that in the first quarterly report of 2022, 22q1 achieved an operating revenue of 3.351 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 26.02%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 221 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 32.68%.
Comments:
Wine bags & Cigarette bags and environmental protection packaging are strongly driven, and the layout of large packaging in 2022 continues to deepen. In 2021a / 22q1, the company's revenue was + 25.97% / + 26.02% year-on-year respectively, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was - 9.19% / 32.68% year-on-year respectively. In 22q1, the profit margin of revenue in a single quarter was improved. In terms of products, in 2021, the revenue of paper-based high-quality packaging / packaging supporting products / environmental protection paper and plastic products was 11.384 billion yuan / 2.505 billion yuan / 691 million yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 24.98% / 25.01% / 62.07%. Among them, the performance of new layout segments such as wine bags and cigarette bags was outstanding, and new businesses such as industrial Internet and environmental protection packaging grew rapidly. Among them, the liquor packaging business has achieved leapfrog development. Relying on the intelligent production line and integrated information platform, the operating efficiency has been improved. Looking forward to 2022, with the establishment of a new intelligent factory in Luzhou and the construction and production of a new factory in Huai'an, the liquor packaging business capacity will achieve a comprehensive layout of the national Baijiu industry. In addition, the company continues to strategically layout and innovate the cosmetics business, deepen cooperation with high-end brands and improve its position in the cosmetics packaging industry.
The ability to control fees is significant, and the multi factor resonance looks forward to the turning point of profit repair. In terms of gross profit margin, in 2021, the company's gross profit margin decreased by 5.29pct year-on-year to 21.54%, of which the gross profit margin of paper-based high-quality packaging / packaging supporting products / environmental protection paper and plastic was 21.22% / 20.39% / 27.13% respectively, with a year-on-year change of -5.97pct / - 3.29pct / - 4.48pct; The quarterly gross profit margin of 21q4 / 22q1 was 21.16% / 20.81% respectively, with a year-on-year rate of -4.04pct / - 3.06pct respectively. The decline in gross profit margin was mainly due to the resonance of multiple factors such as RMB appreciation, rising costs and the impact of epidemic supply chain. In terms of expense rate, in 2021, the company's expense rate was 13.1%, with a year-on-year rate of -2.48pct, and in 22q1, the expense rate was 12.86%, with a year-on-year rate of -3.8pct. The effect of fee control is remarkable. The net interest rate attributable to the parent company in 2021a / 22q1 was 6.85% / 6.59% respectively, with a year-on-year increase of -2.65pct / + 0.33pct. In terms of cash flow, the operating cash flow in 2021 was RMB 1.168 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 16.40%.
Profit forecast: as the leader of paper packaging, the company has made great efforts to layout large packaging, and the growth momentum of new businesses such as wine packaging, cigarette packaging and environmental protection packaging is strong. The automatic intelligent production line and high customer stickiness build manufacturing and operation barriers. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be 1.367 billion yuan, 1.626 billion yuan and 1.883 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 34.4%, 18.9% and 15.8% respectively. At present, the (2022 / 4 / 26) share price corresponds to 17x PE in 2022, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk factors: market competition risk and raw material price fluctuation risk.
