\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 831 Shenzhen Yuto Packaging Technology Co.Ltd(002831) )
The company released the annual report of 2021 and the first quarterly report of 2022: 1) in 2021: the revenue was 14.85 billion yuan (+ 25.97%), the net profit attributable to the parent was 1.017 billion yuan (- 9.19%), and the net profit not attributable to the parent was 908 million yuan (- 7.78%); Single Q4 achieved revenue of 4.795 billion yuan (+ 8.73%), net profit attributable to parent company of 350 million yuan (- 24.60%), net profit not attributable to parent company of 324 million yuan (- 13.61%); The pressure on profits in 21 years is mainly due to the rise of raw material prices and the appreciation of RMB. 2) 22q1: the realized income is 3.351 billion yuan (+ 26.0%), the net profit attributable to the parent company is 221 million yuan (+ 32.7%), and the net profit not attributable to the parent company is 191 million yuan (+ 26.2%). The profit growth rate of 22q1 was higher than that of revenue, which was mainly due to the year-on-year decrease in the price of raw materials (the average price of 22q1 white cardboard / double offset paper / copper paperboard / box paperboard was – 27.4% / – 8.7% / – 15.1% / + 4.2% year-on-year), and the increase in the proportion of high gross profit products such as tobacco and alcohol packaging; Looking ahead to Q2, the year-on-year decline in the price of raw materials is more obvious (since April 22, the average price of white cardboard / double offset paper / coated paper / box board has been – 34.6% / – 13.9% / – 23.0% / + 5.7% year-on-year). Superimposed with the upgrading of product structure, it is expected that the profit elasticity is expected to be gradually released.
Diversified growth and continuous improvement of the packaging layout of large consumption. In the past 21 years, the company’s high-quality packaging revenue reached 11.38 billion yuan (+ 25.0%), with a gross profit margin of 21.2% (- 6.0 PCT), of which 21h2 revenue was 6.73 billion yuan (+ 18.1%) and a gross profit margin of 21.5% (- 6.3 PCT), of which 3C packaging grew steadily, and tobacco and alcohol, cosmetics and great health packaging all achieved rapid growth.
1) 3C packaging: revenue of 9.4 billion yuan (+ 7.7%) in 21 years and CAGR of 12.0% in 20192021, including major customers Xiaomi + 23.9%, oppo + 75.3%, vivo + 20.8% and Logitech + 39.7%; 22q1 consumer electronics achieved a revenue of 2.2 billion yuan (+ 18.1%), which is expected to maintain steady growth in 22 years.
2) wine bags: the revenue in 21 years is 1.33 billion yuan (+ 70.6%), the CAGR in 20192021 is 42.0%, and the revenue in 22q1 is 370 million yuan (+ 30.3%), of which the main customers are Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) + 104.0%, Anhui Gujing Distillery Company Limited(000596) + 70.6%, Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) + 116.6%, Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(002304) + 55.4%; With the construction and operation of Luzhou intelligent factory and Huai’an new factory, it is expected that the company’s wine bag will continue to increase rapidly in 22 years.
3) cigarette packs: in 21 years, the revenue is 880 million yuan (+ 59.7%), the CAGR is 32.7% from 2019 to 2021, and the 22q1 is 150 million yuan (- 6.8%), of which the main customers are Huanghelou, Sichuan Zhongyan, hetianxia and Yunnan Zhongyan; Benefiting from the promotion of China Tobacco anti-corruption, the market share accelerated.
4) environmental protection packaging: the revenue in the 21st year was 690 million yuan (+ 64.9%), the CAGR in 20192021 was 49.2%, and the environmental protection in 22q1 was 220 million yuan (+ 90.0%), which was mainly due to the high prosperity of the industry and the increased investment in R & D innovation, production layout, industrial chain extension and brand promotion.
5) cosmetics packaging: the company achieved revenue of 340 million yuan (+ 15.5%) in 21 years, CAGR of 30.4% in 20192021 and revenue of 100 million yuan (+ 34.4%) in 22q1 cosmetics packaging, mainly due to the company’s promotion of high-end cosmetics customer development, establishment of full-time service team and deepening high-end brand cooperation.
The layout of global production capacity services is improved, and the operation of intelligent factories promotes the improvement of efficiency. By the end of 2021, the company has established 44 production bases in 35 cities around the world, including 6 overseas factories in Vietnam (Beining and Pingyang), India (Bangalore and Delhi), Indonesia (Jakarta) and Thailand (Beilan); Continue to strengthen global production capacity layout and local service capacity; In addition, the company’s Xuchang intelligent factory has been put into operation on a large scale, realizing the integration of business flow, information flow and logistics. At the same time, the business flow from raw material warehouse, post press workshop, semi-finished product warehouse, assembly workshop to finished product warehouse has been fully opened, and the whole logistics in the factory has been unmanned. It is estimated that the full operation of the intelligent factory in 22 years will significantly improve the efficiency of the manufacturing end.
We look forward to the recovery of profits and excellent cost control. 1) 2021: gross profit margin is 21.54% (- 5.3pct), net profit margin is 7.19% (- 2.5pct). In terms of expense performance, during 2021, the expense rate is 13.10% (- 2.5pct), sales expense rate is 2.45% (- 0.3pct), management expense rate is 5.48% (- 1.0pct), financial expense rate is 1.22% (- 0.9pct), and R & D expense rate is 3.95% (- 0.3pct). The pressure on profits in the 21st year was mainly due to the high price of raw materials and the appreciation of RMB. The average price of 21q4 white cardboard / double offset paper / copper paperboard / carton board was – 11.2% / + 0.5% / – 4.0% / + 18.3% year-on-year. 2) 22q1: gross profit margin is 20.81% (- 3.1pct), net profit attributable to parent company is 6.59% (+ 0.3pct), period expense rate is 12.86% (- 3.8pct), among which sales expense rate is 2.51% (- 0.9pct), management expense rate is 5.58% (- 1.8pct), financial expense rate is 0.89% (- 0.1pct), and R & D expense rate is 3.89% (- 1.1pct).
Healthy cash flow and improved operating efficiency. 1) 2021: net operating cash flow is 1.168 billion yuan (+ 16.40%), and single Q4 is 578 million yuan (+ 164.39%). In terms of operating efficiency, as of 2021, accounts receivable and bills are 5.599 billion yuan (+ 5.14%), turnover days are 131.11 days (- 10.77 days), inventories are 1.779 billion yuan (+ 17.18%), and turnover days are 50.94 days (- 1.85 days). 2) 22q1: the net operating cash flow was 368 million yuan (+ 2755.4%), the turnover days of accounts receivable were 145.87 days (- 20.06 days), and the turnover days of inventory were 57.18 days (- 17.67 days).
Investment suggestion: 3C packaging is growing steadily, the second growth curve of tobacco and alcohol packaging is built smoothly, the growth momentum is sufficient, and the upgrading of product structure is expected to drive the steady-state profit margin upward. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 202224 will be RMB 1.50 billion, 1.91 billion and 2.32 billion respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 47.8%, 26.9% and 21.7%, corresponding to PE of 15.5x, 12.2x and 10.0x.
Risk tips: the impact of the epidemic exceeded expectations, the rise of paper prices exceeded expectations, the expansion of tobacco and alcohol packaging was less than expected, and the demand for 3C consumer electronics was less than expected.
