\u3000\u30 Beijing Zznode Technologies Co.Ltd(003007) 50 Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) )
Event: on April 21, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) released the annual report for 21 years. The company’s revenue in 21 years was 130.4 billion yuan, an increase of 159% year-on-year; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 15.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 185%; Deduct non net profit of 13.4 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 215%; The company’s cash flow from operating activities was 42.9 billion yuan, an increase of 133% year-on-year. The company’s performance in 21 years is in the range of early notice, and the range is partial to the upper limit, which is in line with expectations.
21q4 profit increased month on month, with excellent operating cash flow. 21q4’s revenue was 57 billion yuan, an increase of 203% year-on-year and 95% month on month; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 8.18 billion yuan, an increase of 267% year-on-year and 150% month on month; Deducting non net profit of 6.84 billion yuan, an increase of 303% year-on-year and 155% month on month; The cash flow generated by Q4’s operating activities is 14.2 billion yuan, which reflects its strong hematopoietic ability.
The company’s sales volume increased rapidly and its global market share increased. The company announced that the sales volume of lithium battery in 21 years was 133.4gwh, with a year-on-year increase of 185%; Among them, the sales volume of power battery system was 116.71 GWH, with a year-on-year increase of 163%. According to the data of China Shipbuilding Industry Group Power Co.Ltd(600482) battery industry innovation alliance, the loading volume of China Shipbuilding Industry Group Power Co.Ltd(600482) battery in 21 years was 154.5gwh, with a year-on-year increase of 142.8%; Among them, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) installed capacity is 80.51gwh, accounting for 52% of the market, maintaining a high level. Overseas benefited from the high sales volume of new energy vehicles in Europe, and the installed capacity of Tesla, Ford, Daimler and Hyundai supporting Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) increased. The global installed capacity of Ningde was 96.7gwh, and the overseas installed capacity was 16.2gwh, an increase of 206% year-on-year; The company’s global market share was 32.6%, an increase of 6 percentage points year-on-year.
The raw material cost of the company’s power battery increased and the gross profit margin decreased. In 21 years, the company’s power battery revenue was 91.5 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 132% and a gross profit margin of 22%, down 4.6 percentage points year-on-year. Throughout the year, the average price of the company’s power battery was 0.78 yuan / wh, down 7.8% year-on-year; The cost was 0.61 yuan / wh, a year-on-year decrease of 6.1%. Throughout the year, the cost of battery raw materials increased, and the proportion of direct materials in operating costs was 84.0%, up 5.8 percentage points from 78.2% in 20 years.
The gross profit margin of the company’s energy storage battery is still close to 30%. In the next 20 years, the company expects to ship 2.4gwh of energy storage batteries, with a revenue of 1.943 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 218.6%; In the 21st year, the company shipped 1.67 GWH of energy storage batteries, with a revenue of 13.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 601%; Achieve rapid growth. It is estimated that the unit kwh price of the company’s energy storage battery in 21 years is 820 yuan, which is expected to be lithium iron phosphate system. The selling price is higher than that of power, and the corresponding gross profit margin is 28.5%, down 3.5 percentage points year-on-year, but the profitability is still high.
Investment suggestion: considering that the price of lithium carbonate has decreased slightly, the prices of VC, hexafluoride and electrolyte have fallen sharply, and the worst time point of the company’s cost has passed, we raise our profit forecast. It is estimated that the company’s operating revenue in 22-24 years will be 293627 billion yuan, 377863 billion yuan and 534136 billion yuan (the value was 237.99 billion yuan and 367.57 billion yuan 22-23 years ago), with a year-on-year growth rate of 125%, 29% and 41% respectively; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 27.066 billion yuan, 40.408 billion yuan and 53.614 billion yuan (22-23 years ago, the value was 22.03 billion yuan and 30.22 billion yuan), with a year-on-year growth rate of 70%, 49% and 33%; The corresponding PE valuation is 33.6, 22.5 and 17.0 times, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tip: revenue growth is less than expected, cost decline is less than expected, and demand is less than expected.
